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Boom goes the price: Giant resource discoveries and real exchange rate appreciation

Author

Listed:
  • Torfinn Harding

    () (NHH Norwegian School of Economics)

  • Radoslaw Stefanski

    () (University of St Andrews)

  • Gerhard Toews

    () (University of Oxford)

Abstract

We estimate the effect of giant oil and gas discoveries on bilateral real exchange rates. The size and plausibly exogenous timing of such discoveries make them ideal for identifying the effects of an anticipated resource boom on prices. We find that a giant discovery with the value of a country's GDP increases the real exchange rate by 14% within 10 years following the discovery. The appreciation is nearly exclusively driven by an appreciation of the prices of non-tradable goods. We show that these empirical results are qualitatively and quantitatively in line with a calibrated model with forward looking behaviour and Dutch disease dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Torfinn Harding & Radoslaw Stefanski & Gerhard Toews, 2016. "Boom goes the price: Giant resource discoveries and real exchange rate appreciation," Discussion Paper Series, Department of Economics 201608, Department of Economics, University of St. Andrews, revised 21 May 2016.
  • Handle: RePEc:san:wpecon:1608
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brunnschweiler, Christa N. & Bulte, Erwin H., 2008. "The resource curse revisited and revised: A tale of paradoxes and red herrings," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 248-264, May.
    2. Betts, Caroline M. & Kehoe, Timothy J., 2006. "U.S. real exchange rate fluctuations and relative price fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1297-1326, October.
    3. Kuralbayeva, Karlygash & Stefanski, Radoslaw, 2013. "Windfalls, structural transformation and specialization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 273-301.
    4. Rabah Arezki & Valerie A. Ramey & Liugang Sheng, 2017. "News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(1), pages 103-155.
    5. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Venables, Anthony J., 2013. "Absorbing a windfall of foreign exchange: Dutch disease dynamics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 229-243.
    6. Caroline M. Betts & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2008. "Real exchange rate movements and the relative price of non-traded goods," Staff Report 415, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    7. Solomon M. Hsiang & Amir S. Jina, 2014. "The Causal Effect of Environmental Catastrophe on Long-Run Economic Growth: Evidence From 6,700 Cyclones," NBER Working Papers 20352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Hunt Allcott & Daniel Keniston, 2014. "Dutch Disease or Agglomeration? The Local Economic Effects of Natural Resource Booms in Modern America," NBER Working Papers 20508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Kareem Ismail, 2010. "The Structural Manifestation of the ‘Dutch Disease’; The Case of Oil Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 10/103, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:taf:uitjxx:v:30:y:2016:i:5:p:486-488 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2016. "Macro Policy Responses to Natural Resource Windfalls and the Crash in Commodity Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 11520, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Cust,James Frederick & Mihalyi,David, 2017. "Evidence for a presource curse ? oil discoveries, elevated expectations, and growth disappointments," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8140, The World Bank.
    4. Jochen Güntner, 2017. "How do oil producers respond to giant oil field discoveries?," Economics working papers 2017-04, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    5. James Cust & Torfinn Harding & Pierre-Louis Vezina, 2017. "Dutch Disease Resistance: Evidence from Indonesian Firms," OxCarre Working Papers 192, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carbon Subsidies; Subsidies; Fossil Fuels; Pollution; Energy; Carbon;

    JEL classification:

    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies

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