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Boom Goes the Price: Giant resource discoveries and real exchange rate appreciation

Author

Listed:
  • Torfinn Harding
  • Radoslaw (Radek) Stefanski
  • Gerhard Toews

Abstract

We estimate the effect of giant oil and gas discoveries on bilateral real exchange rates.The size and plausibly exogenous timing of such discoveries make them ideal for identifying the effects of an anticipated resource boom on prices. We find that a giant discovery with the value of a country's GDP increases the real exchange rate by 14% within 10 years following the discovery. The appreciation is nearly exclusively driven by an appreciation of the prices of non-tradable goods. We show that these empirical results are qualitatively and quantitatively in line with a calibrated model with forward looking behaviour and Dutch disease dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Torfinn Harding & Radoslaw (Radek) Stefanski & Gerhard Toews, 2016. "Boom Goes the Price: Giant resource discoveries and real exchange rate appreciation," OxCarre Working Papers 174, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  • Handle: RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:174
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    File URL: https://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/materials/OxCarre/ResearchPapers/oxcarrerp2016174.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brunnschweiler, Christa N. & Bulte, Erwin H., 2008. "The resource curse revisited and revised: A tale of paradoxes and red herrings," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 248-264, May.
    2. Betts, Caroline M. & Kehoe, Timothy J., 2006. "U.S. real exchange rate fluctuations and relative price fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1297-1326, October.
    3. Caroline M. Betts & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2008. "Real exchange rate movements and the relative price of non-traded goods," Staff Report 415, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. Kuralbayeva, Karlygash & Stefanski, Radoslaw, 2013. "Windfalls, structural transformation and specialization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 273-301.
    5. repec:oup:qjecon:v:132:y:2017:i:1:p:103-155. is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Rabah Arezki & Valerie A. Ramey & Liugang Sheng, 2017. "News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(1), pages 103-155.
    7. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Venables, Anthony J., 2013. "Absorbing a windfall of foreign exchange: Dutch disease dynamics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 229-243.
    8. Solomon M. Hsiang & Amir S. Jina, 2014. "The Causal Effect of Environmental Catastrophe on Long-Run Economic Growth: Evidence From 6,700 Cyclones," NBER Working Papers 20352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Hunt Allcott & Daniel Keniston, 2014. "Dutch Disease or Agglomeration? The Local Economic Effects of Natural Resource Booms in Modern America," NBER Working Papers 20508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Kareem Ismail, 2010. "The Structural Manifestation of the ‘Dutch Disease’; The Case of Oil Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 10/103, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2019. "Macro policy responses to natural resource windfalls and the crash in commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 263-282.
    2. repec:eee:eneeco:v:80:y:2019:i:c:p:59-74 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Güntner, Jochen H.F., 2019. "How do oil producers respond to giant oil field discoveries?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 59-74.
    4. Christa N. Brunnschweiler & Steven Poelhekke, 2019. "Pushing One's Luck: Petroleum ownership and discoveries," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2019-01, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    5. Roberto Iacono, 2018. "The Dutch disease revisited: absorption constraint and learning by doing," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 17(1), pages 61-85, March.
    6. repec:taf:uitjxx:v:30:y:2016:i:5:p:486-488 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Cust,James Frederick & Mihalyi,David, 2017. "Evidence for a presource curse ? oil discoveries, elevated expectations, and growth disappointments," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8140, The World Bank.
    8. James Cust & Torfinn Harding & Pierre-Louis Vezina, 2017. "Dutch Disease Resistance: Evidence from Indonesian Firms," OxCarre Working Papers 192, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil; resource discoveries; real exchange rate; Dutch disease;

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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