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Boom goes the price: Giant resource discoveries and real

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  • Torfinn Harding
  • Radoslaw Stefanski

Abstract

We estimate the effect of giant oil and gas discoveries on bilateral real exchange rates. The size and plausibly exogenous timing of such discoveries make them ideal for identifying the effects of an anticipated resource boom on prices. We find that a giant discovery with the value of a country's GDP increases the real exchange rate by 14% within 10 years following the discovery. The appreciation is nearly exclusively driven by an appreciation of the prices of non-tradable goods. We show that these empirical results are qualitatively and quantitatively in line with a calibrated model with forward looking behaviour and Dutch disease dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Torfinn Harding & Radoslaw Stefanski, 2016. "Boom goes the price: Giant resource discoveries and real," OxCarre Working Papers 174, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  • Handle: RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:174
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rabah Arezki & Valerie A. Ramey & Liugang Sheng, 2017. "News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(1), pages 103-155.
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    4. Kareem Ismail, 2010. "The Structural Manifestation of the ‘Dutch Disease’; The Case of Oil Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 2010/103, International Monetary Fund.
    5. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Venables, Anthony J., 2013. "Absorbing a windfall of foreign exchange: Dutch disease dynamics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 229-243.
    6. Caroline M. Betts & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2008. "Real exchange rate movements and the relative price of non-traded goods," Staff Report 415, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    7. Solomon M. Hsiang & Amir S. Jina, 2014. "The Causal Effect of Environmental Catastrophe on Long-Run Economic Growth: Evidence From 6,700 Cyclones," NBER Working Papers 20352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

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    2. William Gruben, 2016. ", by Victor Menaldo," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 486-488, October.
    3. Rick Van der Ploeg, 2016. "Macro Policy Responses To Natural Resource Windfalls," OxCarre Working Papers 178, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    4. Girard, Victoire & Kudebayeva, Alma & Toews, Gerhard, 2020. "Inflated Expectations and Commodity Prices: Evidence from Kazakhstan," GLO Discussion Paper Series 469, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    5. Cust,James Frederick & Mihalyi,David, 2017. "Evidence for a presource curse ? oil discoveries, elevated expectations, and growth disappointments," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8140, The World Bank.
    6. Güntner, Jochen H.F., 2019. "How do oil producers respond to giant oil field discoveries?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 59-74.
    7. Cust,James Frederick & Mensah,Justice Tei, 2020. "Natural Resource Discoveries, Citizen Expectations and Household Decisions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9372, The World Bank.
    8. Abdelwahed, Loujaina, 2020. "More oil, more or less taxes? New evidence on the impact of resource revenue on domestic tax revenue," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

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