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Macro-hedging for commodity exporters

  • Borensztein, Eduardo
  • Jeanne, Olivier
  • Sandri, Damiano

This paper uses a dynamic optimization model to quantify the potential welfare gains of hedging against commodity price risk for commodity-exporting countries. We show that hedging enhances domestic welfare through two channels: first, by reducing export income volatility; and second, by reducing the country's need to hold precautionary reserves and improving the country's ability to borrow against future export income. Under plausible calibrations of the model, the second channel may lead to much larger welfare gains, amounting to several percentage points of annual consumption.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Development Economics.

Volume (Year): 101 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 105-116

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Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:101:y:2013:i:c:p:105-116
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec

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  1. Durdu, Ceyhun Bora & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Terrones, Marco E., 2009. "Precautionary demand for foreign assets in Sudden Stop economies: An assessment of the New Mercantilism," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 194-209, July.
  2. Rudolfs Bems & Irineu E. Carvalho Filho, 2009. "Current Account and Precautionary Savings for Exporters of Exhaustible Resources," IMF Working Papers 09/33, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Arellano, Cristina, 2008. "Default risk and income fluctuations in emerging economies," MPRA Paper 7867, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  5. Paul Cashin & Hong Liang & C. John McDermott, 2000. "How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(2), pages 2.
  6. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Panageas, Stavros, 2008. "Hedging sudden stops and precautionary contractions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 28-57, February.
  7. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-48, September.
  8. Jonathan David Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh, 1992. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Precautionary Savings and the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 92/72, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Carroll, Christopher D., 2006. "The method of endogenous gridpoints for solving dynamic stochastic optimization problems," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 312-320, June.
  10. Paolo Mauro & Törbjörn I. Becker & Jonathan David Ostry & Romain Ranciere & Olivier Jeanne, 2007. "Country Insurance; The Role of Domestic Policies," IMF Occasional Papers 254, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Patrizio Pagano & Massimiliano Pisani, 2006. "Risk-Adjusted Forecasts of Oil Prices," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 585, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  12. Powell, Andrew, 1989. "The Management of Risk in Developing Country Finance," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(4), pages 69-87, Winter.
  13. Eduardo M.R.A. Engel & Rodrigo Valdés, 2000. "Optimal Fiscal Strategy for Oil Exporting Countries," Documentos de Trabajo 78, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  14. Stephane Pallage & Michel A. Robe, 2003. "On the Welfare Cost of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Countries," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 677-698, 05.
  15. Arrau, Patricio & Claessens, Stijn, 1992. "Commodity stabilization funds," Policy Research Working Paper Series 835, The World Bank.
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