Government Revenue Volatility: The Case of Alberta, an Energy Dependent Economy
The Alberta government is heavily exposed to energy price volatility as it relies to a great extent on revenue derived from the production of oil and natural gas. Energy prices change substantially and unpredictably, causing large and uncertain movements in revenues. Adjusting to these movements typically involves economic, social and political costs. Alberta government revenues are considerably more volatile than the revenues of other provinces, but Alberta’s own-source revenues less royalty payments are of similar size and volatility as those of other provinces. Several methods to reduce the volatility of revenues are assessed. An often-suggested method, tax base diversification (for example, use of a retail sales tax), is shown to have a minor effect on overall revenue volatility since Alberta’s royalty revenues are such a large share of total own-source revenues. Revenue smoothing using futures and options markets can be expensive, is associated with significant political risks, and cannot eliminate all revenue volatility. The Canadian dollar tends to appreciate (depreciate) when energy prices rise (fall), so exchange rate movements have smoothed Alberta government revenues, although not by a large amount. A simulation using Alberta data shows that a revenue savings fund could significantly reduce revenue volatility. This type of fund leads to greater revenue stability because the revenue it contributes to the budget in any particular year is based on revenues averaged over prior years. Revenue uncertainty is also reduced with a savings fund since future revenue depends on known past contributions.
|Date of creation:||23 Aug 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +322 299 3523
Fax: +322 299 3523
Web page: http://www.eeri.eu/index.htm
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide, 2008.
"Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth,"
Working Paper Series
0849, European Central Bank.
- Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide, 2010. "Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 517-532, December.
- António Afonso & Davide Furceri, 2008. "Government Size, Composition, Volatility and Economic Growth," Working Papers Department of Economics 2008/04, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- James D. Hamilton, 2008.
"Understanding Crude Oil Prices,"
NBER Working Papers
14492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paul Cashin & Luis Felipe Céspedes & Ratna Sahay, 2003.
"Commodity Currencies and the Real Exchange Rate,"
Working Papers Central Bank of Chile
236, Central Bank of Chile.
- Michael Sturm & François Gurtner & Juan Gonzalez Alegre, 2009. "Fiscal policy challenges in oil-exporting countries – a review of key issues," Occasional Paper Series 104, European Central Bank.
- Borensztein, Eduardo & Jeanne, Olivier & Sandri, Damiano, 2009.
"Macro-Hedging for Commodity Exporters,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7513, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Olivier Jeanne & Damiano Sandri & Eduardo Borensztein, 2010. "Macro-Hedging for Commodity Exporters," 2010 Meeting Papers 832, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Eduardo Borensztein & Olivier Jeanne & Damiano Sandri, 2009. "Macro-Hedging for Commodity Exporters," NBER Working Papers 15452, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth & Rossi, Barbara, 2008.
"Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?,"
08-03, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Yu-Chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2008. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," NBER Working Papers 13901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi & Yu-chin Chen, 2008. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," 2008 Meeting Papers 540, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Yu-chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2008. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," Working Papers UWEC-2008-11-FC, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2009.
- Yu-chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," Working Papers 10-07, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Powell, Andrew, 1989. "The Management of Risk in Developing Country Finance," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(4), pages 69-87, Winter.
- Rudolfs Bems & Irineu E. Carvalho Filho, 2009. "Current Account and Precautionary Savings for Exporters of Exhaustible Resources," IMF Working Papers 09/33, International Monetary Fund.
- Christopher Ragan, 2005. "The Exchange Rate and Canadian Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 05-34, Bank of Canada.
- Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
- Frederick van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2009. "Volatility and the natural resource curse," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 727-760, October.
- Blattman, Christopher & Hwang, Jason & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2007. "Winners and losers in the commodity lottery: The impact of terms of trade growth and volatility in the Periphery 1870-1939," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 156-179, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2010_23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julia van Hove)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.