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Boom or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in a two-speed economy

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  • Hilde C. Bjørnland
  • Leif Anders Thorsrud

Abstract

Traditional studies of the Dutch disease do not typically account for productivity spillovers between the booming energy sector and non-oil sectors. This study identifies and quantifies these spillovers using a Bayesian Dynamic Factor Model (BDFM). The model allows for resource movements and spending effects through a large panel of variables at the sectoral level, while also identifying disturbances to the real oil price, global demand and non-oil activity. Using Norway as a representative case study, we find that a booming energy sector has substantial spillover effects on the non-oil sectors. Furthermore, windfall gains due to changes in the real oil price also stimulate the economy, but primarily if the oil price increase is caused by global demand. Oil price increases due to, say, supply disruptions, while stimulating activity in the technologically intense service sectors and boosting government spending, have small spillover effects on the rest of the economy, primarily because of reduced cost competitiveness. Yet, there is no evidence of Dutch disease. Instead, we find evidence of a two-speed economy, with non-tradables growing at a much faster pace than tradables. Our results suggest that traditional Dutch disease models with a fixed capital stock and exogenous labor supply do not provide a convincing explanation for how petroleum wealth a effects a resource rich economy when there are productivity spillovers between sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2013. "Boom or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in a two-speed economy," CAMA Working Papers 2013-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2013-76
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Sharpe & Bert Waslander, 2014. "The Impact of the Oil Boom on Canada's Labour Productivity Performance," CSLS Research Reports 2014-05, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    2. Holden, Steinar, 2013. "Avoiding the resource curse the case Norway," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 870-876.
    3. Drago Bergholt, 2014. "Monetary Policy in Oil Exporting Economies," Working Papers No 5/2014, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    4. Mohn, Klaus, 2015. "Resource revenue management and wealth neutrality," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2015/2, University of Stavanger.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Resource boom; oil prices; Dutch disease; learning by doing; two-speed economy; Bayesian Dynamic Factor Model(BDFM);

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)

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