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Boom or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in a two-speed economy

  • Hilde C. Bjørnland

    ()

  • Leif Anders Thorsrud

    ()

Traditional studies of the Dutch disease do not typically account for productivity spillovers between the booming energy sector and non-oil sectors. This study identifes and quantifes these spillovers using a Bayesian Dynamic Factor Model (BDFM). The model allows for resource movements and spending effects through a large panel of variables at the sectoral level, while also identifying disturbances to the real oil price, global demand and non-oil activity. Using Norway as a representative case study, we find that a booming energy sector has substantial spillover effects on the non-oil sectors. Furthermore, windfall gains due to changes in the real oil price also stimulates the economy, but primarily if the oil price increase is caused by global demand. Oil price increases due to, say, supply disruptions, while stimulating activity in the technologically intense service sectors and boosting government spending, have small spillover effects on the rest of the economy, primarily because of reduced cost competitiveness. Yet, there is no evidence of Dutch disease. Instead, we find evidence of a two-speed economy, with non-tradables growing at a much faster pace than tradables. Our results suggest that traditional Dutch disease models with a fixed capital stock and exogenous labor supply do not provide a convincing explanation for how petroleum wealth affects a resource rich economy when there are productivity spillovers between sectors.

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Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School in its series Working Papers with number 0015.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bny:wpaper:0015
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  4. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2013. "Global and regional business cycles. Shocks and propagations," Working Paper 2013/08, Norges Bank.
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  7. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, June.
  8. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2012. "What drives oil prices? Emerging versus developed economies," Working Paper 2012/11, Norges Bank.
  9. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 57-62, May.
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  12. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1504, Econometric Society.
  13. Kareem Ismail, 2010. "The Structural Manifestation of the `Dutch Disease’; The Case of Oil Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 10/103, International Monetary Fund.
  14. W. Max Corden, 2012. "The Dutch Disease in Australia: Policy Options for a Three-Speed Economy," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2012n05, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  15. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-48, December.
  16. Ruy Lama & Juan Pablo Medina, 2012. "Is Exchange Rate Stabilization an Appropriate Cure for the Dutch Disease?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(1), pages 5-46, March.
  17. Michael M Hutchison, 1990. "Manufacturing sector resiliency to energy booms: Empirical evidence from Norway, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom," BIS Working Papers 13, Bank for International Settlements.
  18. Haroon Mumtaz & Saverio Simonelli & Paolo Surico, 2011. "International Comovements, Business Cycle and Inflation: a Historical Perspective," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 176-198, January.
  19. Eastwood, R K & Venables, A J, 1982. "The Macroeconomic Implications of a Resource Discovery in an Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(366), pages 285-99, June.
  20. W Max Corden, 2012. "The Dutch Disease in Australia Policy Options for a Three-Speed Economy," Departmental Working Papers 2012-10, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  21. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey Sachs, 1982. "Energy and Resource Allocation: A Dynamic Model of the "Dutch Disease"," NBER Working Papers 0852, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Francesco Lippi & Andrea Nobili, 2012. "Oil And The Macroeconomy: A Quantitative Structural Analysis," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1059-1083, October.
  23. Juan Pablo Medina Guzman & Ruy Lama, 2010. "Is Exchange Rate Stabilization a+L4510n Appropriate Cure for the Dutch Disease?," IMF Working Papers 10/182, International Monetary Fund.
  24. Bruno, Michael & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1982. "Energy and Resource Allocation: A Dynamic Model of the "Dutch Disease"," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(5), pages 845-59, Special I.
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