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The Role Of Commodity Prices In Macroeconomic Policy In South Africa

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  • Matthew kofi Ocran
  • Nicholas Biekpe

Abstract

This paper examines whether commodity prices can be used as signal for informing macroeconomic policy in South Africa using the new approach for testing Granger causality developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995 ). Evidence of causality from average gold price to interest rate, money, exchange rate and the consumer price index was observed. Again, evidence of causality was observed from metals price index to interest rate, money and exchange rate. The results suggest there is merit in using South Africa's average gold price and the metals price index of the International Monetary Fund as informational variables in setting monetary policy. Copyright (c) 2007 The Authors; Journal compilation (c) Economic Society of South Africa 2007.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew kofi Ocran & Nicholas Biekpe, 2007. "The Role Of Commodity Prices In Macroeconomic Policy In South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(2), pages 213-220, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:75:y:2007:i:2:p:213-220
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
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    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Peter Wickham, 1994. "Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 175-213, June.
    10. Offutt, Susan E. & Blandford, David, 1986. "Commodity market instability : Empirical techniques for analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 62-72, March.
    11. John T. Cuddington & Hong Liang, 1998. "Commodity Price Volatility Across Exchange Rate Regimes," International Finance 9802003, EconWPA, revised 11 May 1998.
    12. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 251-285, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hegerty, Scott W., 2016. "Commodity-price volatility and macroeconomic spillovers: Evidence from nine emerging markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 23-37.

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