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The Effects of Dollar/Sterling Exchange Rate Volatility on Futures Markets for Coffee and Cocoa

Author

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  • Jumah, Adusei

    (Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna)

  • Kunst, Robert M.

    (Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna)

Abstract

The paper investigates the extent to which the dollar/sterling exchange rate fluctuations affect coffee and cocoa futures prices on the London LIFFE and the New York CSCE by means of multivariate GARCH models - under the assumption that traders in perfectly competitive markets have equal access to all available information on changes in weather and in global demand and supply conditions. In three out of the four investigated cases, exchange rate posed as a main source of risk for the commodity futures price. The significance and form of volatility spill-over effects of a bilateral exchange rate are shown to be specific for commodity and market. A forecasting comparison on the basis of the identified models suggests that possible gains in prediction accuracy may be small.

Suggested Citation

  • Jumah, Adusei & Kunst, Robert M., 1999. "The Effects of Dollar/Sterling Exchange Rate Volatility on Futures Markets for Coffee and Cocoa," Economics Series 73, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:73
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Oyinbo, O. & Rekwot, G. Z., 2014. "Econometric Analysis of the Nexus of Exchange Rate Deregulation and Agricultural Share of Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 6(1), pages 1-7.
    4. Maurice J. Roche & Kieran McQuinn, 2003. "Grain price volatility in a small open economy," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 30(1), pages 77-98, March.
    5. Kepulaje Abhaya Kumar & Cristi Spulbar & Prakash Pinto & Iqbal Thonse Hawaldar & Ramona Birau & Jyeshtaraja Joisa, 2022. "Using Econometric Models to Manage the Price Risk of Cocoa Beans: A Case from India," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-18, June.
    6. Carcano, G. & Falbo, P. & Stefani, S., 2005. "Speculative trading in mean reverting markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 132-144, May.
    7. Guillermo Benavides Peralesv & Francisco Venegas Martínez, 2022. "Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Agricultural Trade between the U.S. and Mexico (1990-2017)," Economía: teoría y práctica, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, México, vol. 56(1), pages 131-154, Enero-Jun.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity markets; Multivariate GARCH models; Exchange rates; Volatility; Forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance

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