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The Effects of Dollar/Sterling Exchange Rate Volatility on Futures Markets for Coffee and Cocoa

  • Jumah, Adusei

    (Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna)

  • Kunst, Robert M.

    (Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna)

The paper investigates the extent to which the dollar/sterling exchange rate fluctuations affect coffee and cocoa futures prices on the London LIFFE and the New York CSCE by means of multivariate GARCH models - under the assumption that traders in perfectly competitive markets have equal access to all available information on changes in weather and in global demand and supply conditions. In three out of the four investigated cases, exchange rate posed as a main source of risk for the commodity futures price. The significance and form of volatility spill-over effects of a bilateral exchange rate are shown to be specific for commodity and market. A forecasting comparison on the basis of the identified models suggests that possible gains in prediction accuracy may be small.

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File URL: http://www.ihs.ac.at/publications/eco/es-73.pdf
File Function: First version, 1999
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Paper provided by Institute for Advanced Studies in its series Economics Series with number 73.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Oct 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:73
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  1. Torben Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 1999. "The Distribution of Exchange Rate Volatility," NBER Working Papers 6961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Peter Wickham, 1994. "Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 175-213, June.
  3. Rausser, Gordon C. & Walraven, Nicholas, 1988. "Dynamic welfare analysis and commodity futures markets overshooting," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt7xc0k7s1, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
  4. Dominique Yves Dupont & V. Hugo Juan-Ramon, 1996. "Real Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 96/27, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Morgan, C. W. & Rayner, A. J. & Ennew, C. T., 1994. "Price instability and commodity futures markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(11), pages 1729-1736, November.
  6. Deaton, A. & Laroque, G., 1989. "On The Behavior Of Commodity Prices," Papers 145, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
  7. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  8. Roy Bailey and Marcus Chambers, . "A Theory of Commodity Price Fluctuations," Economics Discussion Papers 432, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  9. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  10. Elfakhani, Said & Wionzek, Ritchie J., 1997. "Intermarket spread opportunities between Canadian and American agricultural futures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 361-377.
  11. John T. Cuddington & Hong Liang, 1998. "Commodity Price Volatility Across Exchange Rate Regimes," International Finance 9802003, EconWPA, revised 11 May 1998.
  12. Sohbet Karbuz & Adusei Jumah, 1995. "Cointegration and commodity arbitrage," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 235-243.
  13. Nelson, Daniel B., 1990. "Stationarity and Persistence in the GARCH(1,1) Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(03), pages 318-334, September.
  14. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521634809 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Adusei Jumah & Sohbet Karbuz & Gerhard Runstler, 1999. "Interest rate differentials, market integration, and the efficiency of commodity futures markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 101-108.
  16. Holt, Matthew & Aradhyula, Satheesh V., 1990. "Price Risk in Supply Equations: An Application of Garch Time-Series Models to the U.S. Broiler Market," Staff General Research Papers 276, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  17. Marc Sáez & Robert M. Kunst, 1995. "ARCH patterns in cointegrated systems," Economics Working Papers 110, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  18. Bui, Nhuong & Pippenger, John, 1990. "Commodity prices, exchange rates and their relative volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-20, March.
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