IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ihs/ihsesp/73.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effects of Dollar/Sterling Exchange Rate Volatility on Futures Markets for Coffee and Cocoa

Author

Listed:
  • Jumah, Adusei

    (Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna)

  • Kunst, Robert M.

    (Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna)

Abstract

The paper investigates the extent to which the dollar/sterling exchange rate fluctuations affect coffee and cocoa futures prices on the London LIFFE and the New York CSCE by means of multivariate GARCH models - under the assumption that traders in perfectly competitive markets have equal access to all available information on changes in weather and in global demand and supply conditions. In three out of the four investigated cases, exchange rate posed as a main source of risk for the commodity futures price. The significance and form of volatility spill-over effects of a bilateral exchange rate are shown to be specific for commodity and market. A forecasting comparison on the basis of the identified models suggests that possible gains in prediction accuracy may be small.

Suggested Citation

  • Jumah, Adusei & Kunst, Robert M., 1999. "The Effects of Dollar/Sterling Exchange Rate Volatility on Futures Markets for Coffee and Cocoa," Economics Series 73, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:73
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ihs.ac.at/publications/eco/es-73.pdf
    File Function: First version, 1999
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 1999. "The Distribution of Exchange Rate Volatility," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 99-08, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    2. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
    3. Elfakhani, Said & Wionzek, Ritchie J., 1997. "Intermarket spread opportunities between Canadian and American agricultural futures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 361-377.
    4. Tyers,Rod & Anderson,Kym, 2011. "Disarray in World Food Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521172318, April.
    5. Rausser, Gordon C. & Walraven, Nicholas, 1988. "Dynamic welfare analysis and commodity futures markets overshooting," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt7xc0k7s1, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    6. Dominique Yves Dupont & V. Hugo Juan-Ramon, 1996. "Real Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 96/27, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Bui, Nhuong & Pippenger, John, 1990. "Commodity prices, exchange rates and their relative volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-20, March.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Peter Wickham, 1994. "Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 175-213, June.
    9. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632423, April.
    10. Marc Sáez & Robert M. Kunst, 1995. "ARCH patterns in cointegrated systems," Economics Working Papers 110, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    11. Chambers, Marcus J & Bailey, Roy E, 1996. "A Theory of Commodity Price Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 924-957, October.
    12. Nelson, Daniel B., 1990. "Stationarity and Persistence in the GARCH(1,1) Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(03), pages 318-334, September.
    13. John T. Cuddington & Hong Liang, 1998. "Commodity Price Volatility Across Exchange Rate Regimes," International Finance 9802003, EconWPA, revised 11 May 1998.
    14. Holt, Matthew & Aradhyula, Satheesh V., 1990. "Price Risk in Supply Equations: An Application of Garch Time-Series Models to the U.S. Broiler Market," Staff General Research Papers Archive 276, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    15. Adusei Jumah & Sohbet Karbuz & Gerhard Runstler, 1999. "Interest rate differentials, market integration, and the efficiency of commodity futures markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 101-108.
    16. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    17. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    18. Morgan, C. W. & Rayner, A. J. & Ennew, C. T., 1994. "Price instability and commodity futures markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(11), pages 1729-1736, November.
    19. Sohbet Karbuz & Adusei Jumah, 1995. "Cointegration and commodity arbitrage," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 235-243.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Roche, M. & McQuinn, K., 2003. "Efficient allocation of land in a decoupled world," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1190103, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    2. Maurice J. Roche & Kieran McQuinn, 2003. "Grain price volatility in a small open economy," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 77-98, March.
    3. Oyinbo, O. & Rekwot, G. Z., 2014. "Econometric Analysis of the Nexus of Exchange Rate Deregulation and Agricultural Share of Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 6(1), March.
    4. Carcano, G. & Falbo, P. & Stefani, S., 2005. "Speculative trading in mean reverting markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 132-144, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity markets; Multivariate GARCH models; Exchange rates; Volatility; Forecasting;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:73. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Doris Szoncsitz). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/deihsat.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.