Commodity prices, the term structure of interest rates, and exchange rates: useful indicators for monetary policy?
Effective conduct of monetary policy requires accurate and timely indications of the current and future course of the ultimate targets of monetary policy. It is widely agreed that the monetary aggregates no longer provide reliable signals of inflation or of real activity. It is less widely agreed which variable or variables should replace the aggregates, or how they would be used in conducting monetary policy. This article considers whether the slope of the term structure of interest rates, commodity prices, and the exchange rate could be suitable replacements for the aggregates. The author finds that on both theoretical and empirical grounds, the proposed indicators would be neither straightforward nor reliable guides to monetary policy. On theoretical grounds, the indicators would be difficult to interpret because the sign and magnitude of their correlations with ultimate targets depend critically upon the monetary policy regime in effect. Empirically, the study finds that no single indicator bears a stable and statistically reliable relationship to the current or future course of a monetary policy target.
Volume (Year): (1993)
Issue (Month): Nov ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.bos.frb.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1993. "What role does consumer sentiment play in the U.S. macroeconomy?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 32-44.
- Poole, William, 1970.
"Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 197-216, May.
- William Poole, 1969. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Special Studies Papers 2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- William Poole, 1970. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Staff Studies 57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kashyap, Anil K & Stein, Jeremy C & Wilcox, David W, 1993.
"Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 78-98, March.
- Anil K Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein & David W. Wilcox, 1992. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence From the Composition of External Finance," NBER Working Papers 4015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein & David W. Wilcox, 1991. "Monetary policy and credit conditions: evidence from the composition of external finance," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 154, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1992.
"Monetary policy rules and the indicator properties of asset prices,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 303-336, April.
- Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1989. "Monetary policy rules and the indicator properties of asset prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 89, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1988.
"Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand,"
NBER Working Papers
2534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Manuel H. Johnson, 1988. "Current Perspectives on Monetary Policy," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 8(2), pages 253-260, Fall.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedbne:y:1993:i:nov:p:18-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Catherine Spozio)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.