Volatility spill-overs in commodity spot prices: New empirical results
The classical rational expectations model of commodity markets implies that expected spot price risk is an explanatory variable in spot price regressions; and also that inventory carryover, which is reduced by a larger price variance, creates autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic processes in spot prices. In order to falsify/verify this theory, it has typically been assumed that the square root of the conditional variance of spot prices, a proxy for spot price risk, enters the conditional mean function of spot prices. Based on this simple representation, a typical but counter intuitive outcome has been that spot price risk has an insignificant impact on spot prices, see, e.g., Beck (Beck, S., 1993. A Rational Expectations Model of Time Varying Risk Premia in Commodities Futures Markets: Theory and Evidence. International Economic Review 34, 149-168, Beck, S., 2001. Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Commodity Spot Prices. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16, 115-132). In this paper, we propose an alternative functional relationship (from GARCH(1,1) to GARCH(1,1)-AR(m)) between spot price risk and spot prices that is fully supported by the classical rational expectations model, and based on this new representation we are able to provide stronger empirical support for Muth's rational expectation theory.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Danielsson, Jon, 1998. "Multivariate stochastic volatility models: Estimation and a comparison with VGARCH models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 155-173, June.
- Bryan R. Routledge & Duane J. Seppi & Chester S. Spatt, 2000.
"Equilibrium Forward Curves for Commodities,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1297-1338, 06.
- Bryan Routledge & Duane Seppi & Chester Spatt, "undated". "Equilibrium Forward Curves for Commodities," GSIA Working Papers 1997-50, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Bryan Routledge & Duane Seppi & Chester Spatt, "undated". "Equilibrium Forward Curves for Commodities," GSIA Working Papers 1997-49, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Kalvinder Shields & Nilss Olekalns & Ãlan T. Henry & Chris Brooks, 2005. "Measuring the Response of Macroeconomic Uncertainty to Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 362-370, May.
- Kalvinder Shields & Nilss Olekalns & Ólan T. Henry & Chris Brooks, 2003. "Measuring the Response of Macroeconomic Uncertainty to Shocks," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 870, The University of Melbourne.
- Brunetti, Celso & Gilbert, Christopher L., 2000. "Bivariate FIGARCH and fractional cointegration," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(5), pages 509-530, December.
- Celso Brunetti & Christopher L. Gilbert, 1999. "Bivariate FIGARCH and Fractional Cointegration," Working Papers 408, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Gilbert, Christopher L, 1995. "Modelling Market Fundamentals: A Model of the Aluminum Market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 385-410, Oct.-Dec..
- Jian Yang & Titus Awokuse, 2003. "Asset storability and hedging effectiveness in commodity futures markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(8), pages 487-491.
- Yang, Jian & Awokuse, Titus O., 2002. "Asset Storability And Hedging Effectiveness In Commodity Futures Markets," Staff Papers 15826, University of Delaware, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
- Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1991. "On the application of robust, regression- based diagnostics to models of conditional means and conditional variances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 5-46, January.
- Suchada V. Langley & Marcelo Giugale & William H. Meyers & Charles Hallahan, 2000. "International Financial Volatility and Agricultural Commodity Trade: A Primer," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(3), pages 695-700.
- Christensen, Bent Jesper & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard & Zhu, Jie, 2010. "Long memory in stock market volatility and the volatility-in-mean effect: The FIEGARCH-M Model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 460-470, June.
- Bent Jesper Christensen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Jie Zhu, 2007. "Long Memory in Stock Market Volatility and the Volatility-in-Mean Effect: The FIEGARCH-M Model," CREATES Research Papers 2007-10, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Bent Jesper Christensen & Jie Zhu & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2009. "Long memory in stock market volatility and the volatility-in-mean effect: the FIEGARCH-M model," Working Papers 1207, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Charles M. Oellermann & B. Wade Brorsen & Paul L. Farris, 1989. "Price discovery for feeder cattle," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(2), pages 113-121, 04.
- Shih-wen Hu & Vey Wang, 1996. "Commodity Price Dynamics and Anticipated Shocks," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(4), pages 982-990.
- Engle, Robert F., 1984. "Wald, likelihood ratio, and Lagrange multiplier tests in econometrics," Handbook of Econometrics,in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 13, pages 775-826 Elsevier.
- Isabel Figuerola-Ferretti & Christopher L. Gilbert, 2005. "Price discovery in the aluminium market," Department of Economics Working Papers 0506, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
- Stacie Beck, 2001. "Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in commodity spot prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 115-132.
- Beck, Stacie E, 1993. "A Rational Expectations Model of Time Varying Risk Premia in Commodities Futures Markets: Theory and Evidence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(1), pages 149-168, February.
- Smith, Daniel R, 2002. "Markov-Switching and Stochastic Volatility Diffusion Models of Short-Term Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 183-197, April.
- Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
- Sephton, Peter S, 1991. "Commodity Prices: Policy Target or Information Variable: A Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 260-266, May.
- Garbade, Kenneth D & Silber, William L, 1983. "Price Movements and Price Discovery in Futures and Cash Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 289-297, May.
- Gibson, Rajna & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1990. " Stochastic Convenience Yield and the Pricing of Oil Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 959-976, July.
- Brenner, Robin J. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Arbitrage, Cointegration, and Testing the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Financial Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 23-42, March.
- Vogelvang, E, 1992. "Hypotheses Testing Concerning Relationships between Spot Prices of Various Types of Coffee," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 191-201, April-Jun.
- J. Marvin Skadberg & Gene A. Futrell, 1966. "An Economic Appraisal of Futures Trading in Livestock," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1485-1489. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)