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Commodity Price Dynamics and Anticipated Shocks

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  • Shih-wen Hu
  • Vey Wang

Abstract

In this paper we address the robustness of overshooting hypothesis in agricultural prices. We find that agricultural prices may undershoot their long-run level if the economy experiences an anticipated monetary shock rather than an unanticipated monetary shock. We also find that agricultural prices definitely display undershooting if the price of manufactures adjusts instantaneously rather than sluggishly. Copyright 1996, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Shih-wen Hu & Vey Wang, 1996. "Commodity Price Dynamics and Anticipated Shocks," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(4), pages 982-990.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:78:y:1996:i:4:p:982-990
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    Cited by:

    1. Jiawu Dai & Liurui Deng & Lan Yang, 2021. "Testing the absorber hypothesis of exchange rates for the overshooting of agricultural prices in China," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 67(8), pages 327-336.
    2. Chen, Li-Ju & Ye, Chusheng & Hu, Shih-Wen & Wang, Vey & Wen, Jiandong, 2013. "The Effect of a Target Zone on the Stabilization of Agricultural Prices and Farmers' Nominal Income," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-14, April.
    3. Wang, Vey & Lai, Chung-Hui & Hu, Shih-Wen & Cheng, Chia-Hui, 2007. "股票政策宣告對農產品價格與股票價格的動態影響 [The impact of stock market policy announcement on commodity prices and share prices]," MPRA Paper 31178, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Shahnoushi, Naser & Henneberry, Shida Rastegari & Manssori, Hooman, 2009. "An Examination of the Relationship between Food Prices and Government Monetary Policies in Iran," 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia 46078, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    5. Shih-Wen Hu & Li-Ju Chen & Vey Wang & Meng-Yi Tai & Lee-Jung Lu & Chiu-Yue Lin, 2015. "Energy Policies and Food Prices," Journal of Economics and Management, College of Business, Feng Chia University, Taiwan, vol. 11(1), pages 47-68, January.
    6. Sengupta, Jonaki & Nag, Ranjanendra Narayan & Goswami, Bhaskar, 2013. "Terms of trade, capital accumulation and the macro-economy in a developing country: a theoretical analysis," Studies in Agricultural Economics, Research Institute for Agricultural Economics, vol. 115(3), pages 1-9, December.
    7. Tai, Meng-Yi & Chao, Chi-Chur & Hu, Shih-Wen & Lai, Ching-Chong & Wang, Vey, 2014. "Monetary policy and price dynamics in a commodity futures market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 372-379.
    8. Jonaki Sengupta & Ranjanendra Narayan Nag & Bhaskar Goswami, 2017. "Commodity Price Fluctuations and Unemployment in a Dependent Economy," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 11(3), September.
    9. Asjaha, T.A. & Jooste, Andre, 2007. "The Effect of Monetary Changes on Relative Agricultural Prices," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 46(4), pages 1-15, December.
    10. Lai, Ching-Chong & Hu, Shih-Wen & Fan, Chih-Ping, 2005. "The Overshooting Hypothesis of Agricultural Prices: The Role of Asset Substitutability," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-23, April.
    11. Bakucs, Lajos Zoltan & Bojnec, Stefan & Ferto, Imre, 2006. "Monetary Impacts and Overshooting of Agricultural Prices in a Transition Economy: The Case of Slovenia," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25515, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Dahl, Christian M. & Iglesias, Emma M., 2009. "Volatility spill-overs in commodity spot prices: New empirical results," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 601-607, May.
    13. Chen, Li-Ju & Hu, Shih-Wen & Wang, Vey & Wen, Jiandong & Ye, Chusheng, 2014. "The effects of purchasing and price subsidy policies for agricultural products under target zones," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 439-447.
    14. Colin A. Carter & Gordon C. Rausser & Aaron Smith, 2011. "Commodity Booms and Busts," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-118, October.
    15. Jahantigh , Forough & Rahmi Ghasemabadi , Mohammad & Jalali , Omolbanin, 2018. "The Impact of Monetary Policy Shock on the Price of Storable Goods: A Case Study of Food," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 13(4), pages 471-490, October.
    16. Bakucs, Lajos Zoltan & Ferto, Imre, 2005. "The Influence of Macroeconomic Variables on the Hungarian Agriculture," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19232, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    17. Bakucs, Lajos Zoltan & Ferto, Imre, 2005. "Monetary Impacts and Overshooting of Agricultural Prices in a Transition Economy," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24711, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Bakucs, Lajos Zoltan & Ferto, Imre, 2009. "Monetary Impacts and Overshooting of Agricultural Prices in a Transition Economy: The Case of Hungary," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51798, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Chao, Chi-Chur & Hu, Shih-Wen & Tai, Meng-Yi & Wang, Vey, 2011. "Monetary policy announcements and stock price dynamics in a small open economy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 520-531, October.

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