IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rdg/repxwp/rep-wp2005-16.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Diversification When It Hurts? The Joint Distributions of Real Estate and Equity Markets

Author

Listed:
  • John Knight
  • Colin Lizieri

    (Department of Real Estate & Planning, University of Reading)

  • Stephen Satchell

Abstract

Much of the literature on the construction of mixed asset portfolios and the case for property as a risk diversifier rests on correlations measured over the whole of a given time series. Recent developments in finance, however, focuses on dependence in the tails of the distribution. Does property offer diversification from equity markets when it is most needed - when equity returns are poor. The paper uses an empirical copula approach to test tail dependence between property and equity for the UK and for a global portfolio. Results show strong tail dependence: in the UK, the dependence in the lower tail is stronger than in the upper tail, casting doubt on the defensive properties of real estate stocks.

Suggested Citation

  • John Knight & Colin Lizieri & Stephen Satchell, 2005. "Diversification When It Hurts? The Joint Distributions of Real Estate and Equity Markets," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2005-16, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  • Handle: RePEc:rdg:repxwp:rep-wp2005-16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.henley.reading.ac.uk/rep/fulltxt/1605.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. P. Hartmann & S. Straetmans & C. G. de Vries, 2004. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 313-326, February.
    2. Brown, Gerald R & Matysiak, George A, 2000. "Sticky Valuations, Aggregation Effects, and Property Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 49-66, January.
    3. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
    4. P. Silvapulle & C. W. J. Granger, 2001. "Large returns, conditional correlation and portfolio diversification: a value-at-risk approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(5), pages 542-551.
    5. Jeffrey Fisher & Dean Gatzlaff & David Geltner & Donald Haurin, 2003. "Controlling for the Impact of Variable Liquidity in Commercial Real Estate Price Indices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(2), pages 269-303, June.
    6. Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & René M. Stulz, 2003. "A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 717-763, July.
    7. John Okunev & Patrick J. Wilson, 1997. "Using Nonlinear Tests to Examine Integration Between Real Estate and Stock Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 25(3), pages 487-503, September.
    8. Pat McAllister & Andrew Baum & Neil Crosby & Paul Gallimore & Adelaide Gray, 2003. "Appraiser behaviour and appraisal smoothing: some qualitative and quantitative evidence," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 261-280, January.
    9. Foort Hamelink & Martin Hoesli, 2004. "Maximum drawdown and the allocation to real estate," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 5-29, January.
    10. David Geltner, 1993. "Temporal Aggregation in Real Estate Return Indices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(2), pages 141-166, June.
    11. Satchell, Stephen & Knight, John, 2000. "Return Distributions in Finance," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780750647519.
    12. Joseph Gyourko & Donald B. Keim, 1992. "What Does the Stock Market Tell Us About Real Estate Returns?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(3), pages 457-485, September.
    13. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, May.
    14. Yuming Fu, 2003. "Estimating the Lagging Error in Real Estate Price Indices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(1), pages 75-98, March.
    15. Fisher, Jeffrey D & Geltner, David M & Webb, R Brian, 1994. "Value Indices of Commercial Real Estate: A Comparison of Index Construction Methods," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 137-164, September.
    16. François Longin & Bruno Solnik, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, April.
    17. James K. Maitland-Smith & Chris Brooks, 1999. "Threshold autoregressive and Markov switching models: an application to commercial real estate," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 1-19, January.
    18. Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2002. "Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 443-494, March.
    19. Richard J. Barkham & Charles W. R. Ward, 1999. "Investor Sentiment and Noise Traders: Discount to Net Asset Value in Listed Property Companies in the U.K," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(2), pages 291-312.
    20. Kofman, Paul & Koedijk, Kees & Campbell, Rachel, 2002. "Increased Correlation in Bear markets: A Downside Risk Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 3172, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Tsong‐Yue Lai & Ko Wang, 1998. "Appraisal Smoothing: The Other Side of the Story," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 26(3), pages 511-535, September.
    22. David C. Ling & Andy Naranjo, 1999. "The Integration of Commercial Real Estate Markets and Stock Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(3), pages 483-515, September.
    23. Bruno Solnik & François Longin, 2000. "Extreme correlation of International Equity Markets," Working Papers hal-00598166, HAL.
    24. J. L. Knight & S. E. Satchell & K. C. Tran, 1995. "Statistical modelling of asymmetric risk in asset returns," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 155-172.
    25. Soosung Hwang, 2004. "Liquidity Risk and Real Estate: A Quantitative Approach to Assessing Risk," ERES eres2004_540, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John Knight & Colin Lizieri & Stephen Satchell, 2005. "Diversification when It Hurts? The Joint Distributions of Real Estate and Equity Markets1," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 309-323, December.
    2. Dimic, Nebojsa & Piljak, Vanja & Swinkels, Laurens & Vulanovic, Milos, 2021. "The structure and degree of dependence in government bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Rodriguez, Juan Carlos, 2007. "Measuring financial contagion: A Copula approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 401-423, June.
    4. Kole, Erik & Koedijk, Kees & Verbeek, Marno, 2007. "Selecting copulas for risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2405-2423, August.
    5. Alcock, Jamie & Sinagl, Petra, 2022. "International determinants of asymmetric dependence in investment returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    6. Martin Hoesli & Kustrim Reka, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers, Comovements and Contagion in Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 1-35, July.
    7. Rajan Sruthi & Santhakumar Shijin, 2020. "Investigating liquidity constraints as a channel of contagion: a regime switching approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, December.
    8. Jian Zhou & Yanmin Gao, 2012. "Tail Dependence in International Real Estate Securities Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 128-151, June.
    9. Ozer-Imer, Itir & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2014. "An empirical analysis of currency volatilities during the recent global financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 394-406.
    10. José Afonso Faias & Juan Arismendi Zambrano, 2022. "Equity Risk Premium Predictability from Cross-Sectoral Downturns [International asset allocation with regime shifts]," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(3), pages 808-842.
    11. Mittnik, Stefan, 2014. "VaR-implied tail-correlation matrices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 69-73.
    12. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore & Politsidis, Panagiotis N., 2023. "Sovereign bond and CDS market contagion: A story from the Eurozone crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    13. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2013. "Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1127-1220, Elsevier.
    14. Jeff Fisher & David Geltner & Henry Pollakowski, 2007. "A Quarterly Transactions-based Index of Institutional Real Estate Investment Performance and Movements in Supply and Demand," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 5-33, January.
    15. David Geltner & Bryan D. MacGregor & Gregory M. Schwann, 2003. "Appraisal Smoothing and Price Discovery in Real Estate Markets," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 40(5-6), pages 1047-1064, May.
    16. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Angela Ng, 2005. "Market Integration and Contagion," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 39-70, January.
    17. Ji, Qiang & Liu, Bing-Yue & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Risk spillover between the US and the remaining G7 stock markets using time-varying copulas with Markov switching: Evidence from over a century of data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    18. Colin Lizieri & Charles Ward, 2000. "Commercial Real Estate Return Distributions: A Review Of Literature And Empirical Evidence," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2000-01, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    19. Su, EnDer, 2014. "Measuring Contagion Risk in High Volatility State between Major Banks in Taiwan by Threshold Copula GARCH Model," MPRA Paper 58161, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Schindler, Felix & Voronkova, Svitlana, 2010. "Linkages between international securitized real estate markets: Further evidence from time-varying and stochastic cointegration," ZEW Discussion Papers 10-051, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rdg:repxwp:rep-wp2005-16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marie Pearson (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bsrdguk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.