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VaR-implied tail-correlation matrices

  • Mittnik, Stefan

Empirical evidence suggests that asset returns correlate more strongly in bear markets than conventional correlation estimates imply. We propose a method for determining complete tail-correlation matrices based on Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates. We demonstrate how to obtain more effi cient tail-correlation estimates by use of overidenti cation strategies and how to guarantee positive semidefi niteness, a property required for valid risk aggregation and Markowitz-type portfolio optimization. An empirical application to a 30-asset universe illustrates the practical applicability and relevance of the approach in portfolio management.

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Paper provided by Center for Financial Studies (CFS) in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number 2013/05.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:201305
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  1. Longin, Francois & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "Is the correlation in international equity returns constant: 1960-1990?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-26, February.
  2. Butler, K. C. & Joaquin, D. C., 2002. "Are the gains from international portfolio diversification exaggerated? The influence of downside risk in bear markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 981-1011, December.
  3. Haas, Markus & Mittnik, Stefan & Paolella, Marc S., 2002. "Mixed normal conditional heteroskedasticity," CFS Working Paper Series 2002/10, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  4. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean-Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228.
  5. Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & René M. Stulz, 2003. "A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 717-763, July.
  6. Robert Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2000. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0841, Econometric Society.
  7. Karolyi, G Andrew & Stulz, Rene M, 1996. " Why Do Markets Move Together? An Investigation of U.S.-Japan Stock Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 951-86, July.
  8. Cotter, John & Longin, Francois, 2006. "Implied correlation from VaR," MPRA Paper 3506, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Mittnik, Stefan, 1990. "Macroeconomic forecasting experience with balanced state space models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 337-348, October.
  10. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2008. "New Evidence of Asymmetric Dependence Structures in International Equity Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(03), pages 787-815, September.
  11. Keith Kuester & Stefan Mittnik & Marc S. Paolella, 2006. "Value-at-Risk Prediction: A Comparison of Alternative Strategies," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(1), pages 53-89.
  12. P. Silvapulle & C. W. J. Granger, 2001. "Large returns, conditional correlation and portfolio diversification: a value-at-risk approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(5), pages 542-551.
  13. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
  14. Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2002. "Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 443-494, March.
  15. Cambanis, Stamatis & Huang, Steel & Simons, Gordon, 1981. "On the theory of elliptically contoured distributions," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 368-385, September.
  16. Campbell, Rachel A.J. & Forbes, Catherine S. & Koedijk, Kees G. & Kofman, Paul, 2008. "Increasing correlations or just fat tails?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 287-309, March.
  17. François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04.
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