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Threshold autoregressive and Markov switching models: an application to commercial real estate

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  • James K. Maitland-Smith
  • Chris Brooks

Abstract

Although financial theory rests heavily upon the assumption that asset returns are normally distributed, value indices of commercial real estate display significant departures from normality. In this paper, we apply and compare the properties of two recently proposed regime switching models for value indices of commercial real estate in the US and the UK, both of which relax the assumption that observations are drawn from a single distribution with constant mean and variance. Statistical tests of the models' specification indicate that the Markov switching model is better able to capture the non-stationary features of the data than the threshold autoregressive model, although both represent superior descriptions of the data than the models that allow for only one state. Our results have several implications for theoretical models and empirical research in finance.

Suggested Citation

  • James K. Maitland-Smith & Chris Brooks, 1999. "Threshold autoregressive and Markov switching models: an application to commercial real estate," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 1-19, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jpropr:v:16:y:1999:i:1:p:1-19
    DOI: 10.1080/095999199368238
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Conlin Lizieri & Steven Satchell & Elaine Worzala & Roberto Dacco', 1998. "Real Interest Regimes and Real Estate Performance: A Comparison of UK and US Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 16(3), pages 339-356.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. William Goetzmann & Eduardas Valaitis, 2006. "Simulating Real Estate in the Investment Portfolio: Model Uncertainty and Inflation Hedging," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2476, Yale School of Management, revised 01 May 2006.
    2. Kim Hiang Liow & Qing Ye, 2018. "Regime dependent volatilities and correlation in international securitized real estate markets," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 457-487, August.
    3. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:560:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Patrick Krieger & Carsten Lausberg & Kristin Wellner, 2018. "Einblicke in die Gründe für nicht-normalverteilte Immobilienrenditen: eine explorative Untersuchung deutscher Wohnimmobilienportfolios [Insights into the reasons for non-normal real estate returns:," Zeitschrift für Immobilienökonomie (German Journal of Real Estate Research), Springer;Gesellschaft für Immobilienwirtschaftliche Forschung e. V., vol. 4(1), pages 49-79, November.
    5. Joao Leitao & Joaquim Ferreira & Ernesto Santibanez‐Gonzalez, 2021. "Green bonds, sustainable development and environmental policy in the European Union carbon market," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 2077-2090, May.
    6. Pierre Giot & Mikael Petitjean, 2009. "Short-term market timing using the bond-equity yield ratio," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 365-384.
    7. John Knight & Colin Lizieri & Stephen Satchell, 2005. "Diversification When It Hurts? The Joint Distributions of Real Estate and Equity Markets," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2005-16, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    8. Maddalena Cavicchioli, 2016. "Statistical Analysis Of Mixture Vector Autoregressive Models," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 43(4), pages 1192-1213, December.
    9. Kim Liow & Zhiwei Chen & Jingran Liu, 2011. "Multiple Regimes and Volatility Transmission in Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 295-328, April.
    10. Mato Njavro & Petra Posedel & Maruška Vizek, 2016. "Regime Switching Behaviour of Real Estate and Equity Prices in Emerging Countries," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(4), pages 396-410.
    11. John Knight & Colin Lizieri & Stephen Satchell, 2005. "Diversification when It Hurts? The Joint Distributions of Real Estate and Equity Markets1," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 309-323, December.
    12. Norman Hutchison & Patricia Fraser & Alastair Adair & Rahul Srivatsa, 2012. "Regime shifts in ex post UK commercial property risk premiums," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 247-269, April.
    13. Kim Hiang Liow & Qing Ye, 2014. "Switching volatility and cross-market linkages in public property markets," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 287-314, December.
    14. Colin Lizieri & Charles Ward, 2000. "Commercial Real Estate Return Distributions: A Review Of Literature And Empirical Evidence," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2000-01, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    15. Brooks, Chris & Persand, Gita, 2001. "The trading profitability of forecasts of the gilt-equity yield ratio," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 11-29.
    16. Shaukat, Mughees, 2010. "The Benefits and Importance of Commercial Real Estate," MPRA Paper 28268, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel, 2013. "Persistence and non-linearity in US unemployment: A regime-switching approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 61-68.
    18. Andreas Gohs, 2017. "Correction Procedures for Appraisal-Based Real Estate Indices," ERES eres2017_274, European Real Estate Society (ERES).

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