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Real Interest Regimes and Real Estate Performance: A Comparison of UK and US Markets

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Abstract

Linear models of market performance may be misspecified if the market is subdivided into distinct regimes exhibiting different behavior. Price movements in the United States real estate investment trusts and United Kingdom property companies markets are explored using a threshold autoregressive (TAR) model with regimes defined by the real rate of interest. In both U.S. and U.K. markets, distinctive behavior emerges, with the TAR model offering better predictive power than a more conventional linear autoregressive model. The research points to the possibility of developing trading rules to exploit the systematically different behavior across regimes.

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  • Conlin Lizieri & Steven Satchell & Elaine Worzala & Roberto Dacco', 1998. "Real Interest Regimes and Real Estate Performance: A Comparison of UK and US Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 16(3), pages 339-356.
    • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:16:n:3:1998:p:339-356
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    Cited by:

    1. Khalid Almeshal & Nader Naifar, 2016. "A quantile regression approach and nonlinear analysis with Archimedean copulas to explain the movements of residential real estate prices," Afro-Asian Journal of Finance and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 6(4), pages 374-395.
    2. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:560:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. I.Fatnassi & S.Chawechi & Z.Ftiti & A.Ben Maatoug, 2014. "Effects of Monetary Policy on the REIT Returns," Working Papers 2014-63, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    4. Fatnassi, Ibrahim & Slim, Chaouachi & Ftiti, Zied & Ben Maatoug, Abderrazek, 2014. "Effects of monetary policy on the REIT returns: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 15-26.
    5. Kim Liow & Zhiwei Chen & Jingran Liu, 2011. "Multiple Regimes and Volatility Transmission in Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 295-328, April.
    6. Mato Njavro & Petra Posedel & Maruška Vizek, 2016. "Regime Switching Behaviour of Real Estate and Equity Prices in Emerging Countries," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(4), pages 396-410.
    7. John Knight & Colin Lizieri & Stephen Satchell, 2005. "Diversification when It Hurts? The Joint Distributions of Real Estate and Equity Markets1," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 309-323, December.
    8. Kim Hiang LIOW & Qing YE, 2017. "Switching Regime Beta Analysis of Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from International Public Real Estate Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 39(1), pages 127-164.
    9. Colin Lizieri & Charles Ward, 2000. "Commercial Real Estate Return Distributions: A Review Of Literature And Empirical Evidence," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2000-01, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    10. Kieran Farrelly & Ben Sanderson, 2005. "Modelling Regime Shifts in the City of London Office Rental Cycle," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 325-344, December.
    11. Shaukat, Mughees, 2010. "The Benefits and Importance of Commercial Real Estate," MPRA Paper 28268, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-063 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Alexey Akimov & Simon Stevenson & Maxim Zagonov, 2015. "Public Real Estate and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Cross-Country Study," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 503-540, November.
    14. Elaine Worzala & C.F. Sirmans, 2003. "Investing in International Real Estate Stocks: A Review of the Literature," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 40(5-6), pages 1115-1149, May.
    15. Andreas Gohs, 2017. "Correction Procedures for Appraisal-Based Real Estate Indices," ERES eres2017_274, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    16. Das, Mahamitra & Sarkar, Nityananda, 2017. "Re-investigating the anomalous relationship between inflation and equity REIT returns: A regime-switching approach," MPRA Paper 95135, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Nov 2018.
    17. James K. Maitland-Smith & Chris Brooks, 1999. "Threshold autoregressive and Markov switching models: an application to commercial real estate," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 1-19, January.

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    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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