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U.S. and Japanese macroeconomic news and stock market volatility in Asia-Pacific

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  • Vrugt, Evert B.

Abstract

I use a new comprehensive dataset to analyze the impact of ten U.S. and six Japanese macroeconomic announcements on stock market volatility in Japan, Hong Kong, South-Korea and Australia. A GARCH model that allows for multiplicative announcement effects and asymmetries is employed. Overnight conditional variances are significantly higher on announcement days and significantly lower on days before and after announcements, especially for U.S. news. The impact of announcements on implied volatilities, in contrast, is much weaker. Out-of-sample trading strategies that systematically buy delta-neutral straddles on announcement days generate statistically significant profits, but these disappear after transaction costs are taken into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Vrugt, Evert B., 2009. "U.S. and Japanese macroeconomic news and stock market volatility in Asia-Pacific," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 611-627, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:17:y:2009:i:5:p:611-627
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Singh, Manohar & Nejadmalayeri, Ali & Lucey, Brian, 2013. "Do U.S. macroeconomic surprises influence equity returns? An exploratory analysis of developed economies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 476-485.
    2. Jiang, X.F. & Chen, T.T. & Zheng, B., 2013. "Time-reversal asymmetry in financial systems," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(21), pages 5369-5375.
    3. Kim, Suk-Joong & Salem, Leith & Wu, Eliza, 2015. "The role of macroeconomic news in sovereign CDS markets: Domestic and spillover news effects from the U.S., the Eurozone and China," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 208-224.
    4. repec:eee:pacfin:v:43:y:2017:i:c:p:37-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Chang, Yuk Ying & Faff, Robert & Hwang, Chuan-Yang, 2010. "Liquidity and stock returns in Japan: New evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 90-115, January.
    6. Chiang, Shu-Mei & Chen, Hsin-Fu & Lin, Chi-Tai, 2013. "The spillover effects of the sub-prime mortgage crisis and optimum asset allocation in the BRICV stock markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 30-43.
    7. repec:gam:jecnmx:v:5:y:2017:i:3:p:35-:d:108901 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. X. F. Jiang & T. T. Chen & B. Zheng, 2013. "Time-reversal asymmetry in financial systems," Papers 1308.0669, arXiv.org.
    9. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Bannigidadmath, Deepa, 2017. "Does Financial News Predict Stock Returns? New Evidence from Islamic and Non-Islamic Stocks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 24-45.

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