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The Underlying Return Generating Factors for REIT Returns: An Application of Independent Component Analysis

Author

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  • Colin Lizieri

    (Department of Real Estate & Planning, University of Reading)

  • Stephen Satchell
  • Qi Zhang

Abstract

Multi-factor approaches to analysis of real estate returns have, since the pioneering work of Chan, Hendershott and Sanders (1990), emphasised a macro-variables approach in preference to the latent factor approach that formed the original basis of the arbitrage pricing theory. With increasing use of high frequency data and trading strategies and with a growing emphasis on the risks of extreme events, the macro-variable procedure has some deficiencies. This paper explores a third way, with the use of an alternative to the standard principal components approach - independent components analysis (ICA). ICA seeks higher moment independence and maximises in relation to a chosen risk parameter. We apply an ICA based on kurtosis maximisation to weekly US REIT data using a kurtosis maximising algorithm. The results show that ICA is successful in capturing the kurtosis characteristics of REIT returns, offering possibilities for the development of risk management strategies that are sensitive to extreme events and tail distributions.

Suggested Citation

  • Colin Lizieri & Stephen Satchell & Qi Zhang, 2006. "The Underlying Return Generating Factors for REIT Returns: An Application of Independent Component Analysis," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2006-12, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    • Handle: RePEc:rdg:repxwp:rep-wp2006-12
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    File URL: http://www.henley.reading.ac.uk/rep/fulltxt/1206.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Shizhen Wang & David Hartzell, 2021. "Real Estate Return in Hong Kong and its Determinants: A Dynamic Gordon Growth Model Analysis," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 24(1), pages 113-138.
    3. Rogelio Ladrón de Guevara Cortés & Salvador Torra Porras & Enric Monte Moreno, 2021. "Statistical and computational techniques for extraction of underlying systematic risk factors: a comparative study in the Mexican Stock Exchange," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 13(2), pages 513-543, August.
    4. Alexander Schätz & Steffen Sebastian, 2009. "The links between property and the economy -- evidence from the British and German markets," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 171-191, September.
    5. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2010. "House price dynamics, conditional higher-order moments, and density forecasts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1029-1039, September.
    6. Jamie Alcock & Petra Andrlikova, 2018. "Asymmetric Dependence in Real Estate Investment Trusts: An Asset-Pricing Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 183-216, February.
    7. John Cotter & Richard Roll, 2010. "A Comparative Anatomy of REITs and Residential Real Estate Indexes: Returns, Risks and Distributional Characteristics," Working Papers 201008, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    8. Masud Alam, 2021. "Time Varying Risk in U.S. Housing Sector and Real Estate Investment Trusts Equity Return," Papers 2107.10455, arXiv.org.
    9. Kelvin Jui Keng Tan, 2017. "Why Do Overconfident REIT CEOs Issue More Debt? Mechanisms and Value Implications," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 53(3), pages 319-348, September.
    10. Zhiqiang Guo & Huaiqing Wang & Quan Liu & Jie Yang, 2014. "A Feature Fusion Based Forecasting Model for Financial Time Series," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(6), pages 1-13, June.

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