The Forecasting Performance of Corridor Implied Volatility in the Italian Market
Corridor implied volatility introduced in Carr and Madan (Volatility: new estimation techniques for pricing derivatives, 1998 ) and recently implemented in Andersen and Bondarenko (Volatility as an asset class, 2007 ) is obtained from model-free implied volatility by truncating the integration domain between two barriers. Corridor implied volatility is implicitly linked with the concept that the tails of the risk-neutral distribution are estimated with less precision than central values, due to the lack of liquid options for very high and very low strikes. However, there is no golden choice for the barrier levels, which are likely to change depending on the underlying asset risk neutral distribution. The latter feature renders its forecasting performance mainly an empirical question. The aim of the paper is to investigate the forecasting performance of corridor implied volatility by choosing different corridors with symmetric and asymmetric cuts, and compare the results with the preliminary findings in Muzzioli (CEFIN working paper no 23, 2010b ). Moreover, we shed light on the information content of different parts of the risk neutral distribution of the stock price, by using a model-independent approach based on corridor measures. To this end we compute both realized and model-free variance measures accounting for both falls and increases in the underlying asset price. The forecasting performance of volatility measures is evaluated both in a statistical and an economic setting. The economic significance is assessed by employing trading strategies based on delta-neutral straddles. The comparison is pursued by using intra-day synchronous prices between the options and the underlying asset. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013
Volume (Year): 41 (2013)
Issue (Month): 3 (March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100248|
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Andrew Ang & Joseph Chen & Yuhang Xing, 2005.
NBER Working Papers
11824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, . "DMARIANO: RATS procedure to compute Diebold-Mariano Forecast Comparison Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00055, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Moriggia, V. & Muzzioli, S. & Torricelli, C., 2009. "On the no-arbitrage condition in option implied trees," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 193(1), pages 212-221, February.
- Mark Britten-Jones & Anthony Neuberger, 2000. "Option Prices, Implied Price Processes, and Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 839-866, 04.
- Silvia Muzzioli, 2008.
"Option based forecasts of volatility: An empirical study in the DAX index options market,"
Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance)
08051, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
- S. Muzzioli, 2010. "Option-based forecasts of volatility: an empirical study in the DAX-index options market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 561-586.
- Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
- Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, 1998.
"Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 499-547, 04.
- Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, . "Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices," CRSP working papers 332, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, 1995. "Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 5351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tim Bollerslev & Tzuo Hao & George Tauchen, 2008.
"Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia,"
CREATES Research Papers
2008-48, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Tim Bollerslev & Hao Zhou, 2006. "Expected stock returns and variance risk premia," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Tim Bollerslev & Hao Zhou, 2007. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2007-17, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- George J. Jiang & Yisong S. Tian, 2005. "The Model-Free Implied Volatility and Its Information Content," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1305-1342.
- Carr, Peter & Madan, Dilip B., 2005. "A note on sufficient conditions for no arbitrage," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 125-130, September.
- Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
- Campa, Jose M. & Chang, P. H. Kevin & Reider, Robert L., 1998. "Implied exchange rate distributions: evidence from OTC option markets1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 117-160, February.
- Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2009. "Variance Risk Premiums," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1311-1341, March.
- Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
- Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
- Hansen, Peter Reinhard & Lunde, Asger, 2006. "Consistent ranking of volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 97-121.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:41:y:2013:i:3:p:359-386. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.