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Oil Price Pass-through into Core Inflation

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  • Cristina Conflitti and Matteo Luciani

Abstract

We estimate the oil price pass-through into consumer prices both in the U.S. and in the euro area. In particular, we disentangle the specific effect that an oil price change might have on each disaggregate price, from the effect on all prices that an oil price change might have since it affects the whole economy. To do so, we first estimate a Dynamic Factor Model on a panel of disaggregate price indicators, and then we use VAR techniques to estimate the pass-through. Our results show that the oil price passes through core inflation only via its effect on the whole economy. This pass-through is estimated to be small, but statistically different from zero and long lasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristina Conflitti and Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Oil Price Pass-through into Core Inflation," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej40-6-luciani
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    4. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2022. "The impact of rising oil prices on U.S. inflation and inflation expectations in 2020–23," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    5. Francesco Corsello & Alex Tagliabracci, 2023. "Assessing the pass-through of energy prices to inflation in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 745, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2020. "Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and Inflation Expectations: A New Model and New Facts," Working Papers 2025, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    7. Ekaterina Pirozhkova & Jeffrey Rakgalakane & Luchelle Soobyah Rudi Steinbach, 2023. "EnhancingtheQuarterlyProjectionModel," Working Papers 11044, South African Reserve Bank.
    8. Leila Ben Salem & Ridha Nouira & Christophe Rault, 2024. "On the Impact of Oil Prices on Sectoral Inflation: Evidence from World’s Top Oil Exporters and Importers," CESifo Working Paper Series 10879, CESifo.
    9. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2023. "A broader perspective on the inflationary effects of energy price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    10. Adam Hale Shapiro, "undated". "Decomposing Supply and Demand Driven Inflation," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2023-03, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised Nov 2023.
    11. Grzegorz Przekota & Anna Szczepańska-Przekota, 2022. "Pro-Inflationary Impact of the Oil Market—A Study for Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-19, April.
    12. Tersoo Shimonkabir Shitile & Nuruddeen Usman, 2020. "Disaggregated Inflation and Asymmetric Oil Price Pass-Through in Nigeria," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 255-264.
    13. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Andrea Gazzani, 2023. "Natural gas and the macroeconomy: not all energy shocks are alike," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1428, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Garcia, Pedro Mendes, 2023. "Effects of oil shocks and central bank credibility on price diffusion," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 304-317.
    15. Ozgur, Onder & Aydin, Levent & Karagol, Erdal Tanas & Ozbugday, Fatih Cemil, 2021. "The fuel price pass-through in Turkey: The case study of motor fuel price subsidy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    16. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2021. "Oil price pass-through into consumer prices: Evidence from U.S. weekly data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    17. Adam Hale Shapiro, 2022. "Decomposing Supply and Demand Driven Inflation," Working Paper Series 2022-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    18. Gertjan Vlieghe, 2024. "Core Strength: International Evidence on the Impact of Energy Prices on Core Inflation," Discussion Papers 2407, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    19. Barigozzi, Matteo & Lippi, Marco & Luciani, Matteo, 2021. "Large-dimensional Dynamic Factor Models: Estimation of Impulse–Response Functions with I(1) cointegrated factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 221(2), pages 455-482.
    20. Cristina Conflitti, 2020. "Alternative measures of underlying inflation in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 593, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    21. Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo, 2020. "Dynamic Relationship between Oil Price and Inflation in Oil Exporting Economy: Empirical Evidence from Wavelet Coherence Technique," Energy Economics Letters, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(1), pages 12-22, June.
    22. Csaba BÁLINT, 2022. "Sectorial Price Shock Propagation via Input-Output Linkages," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 21-40, December.
    23. Чернявский Денис // Chernyavskiy Denis & Сейдахметов Ансар // Seidakhmetov Ansar, 2023. "Влияние повышения цен на горюче-смазочные материалы (ГСМ) на инфляцию: опыт Казахстана. // The impact of the increase in prices for fuels and lubricants on inflation: the experience of Kazakhstan," Working Papers #2023-6, National Bank of Kazakhstan.
    24. Hie Joo Ahn & Matteo Luciani, 2021. "Relative prices and pure inflation since the mid-1990s," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-069, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    25. Ekaterina Pirozhkova & Jeffrey Rakgalakane & Luchelle Soobyah & Rudi Steinbach, 2023. "Enhancing the Quarterly Projection Model," Working Papers 11048, South African Reserve Bank.

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