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Has European Customs Union Agreement really affected Turkey's trade?

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  • Bilin Neyaptı
  • Fatma Taskın
  • Murat Ungor

Abstract

The numerous discussions regarding the advantages and disadvantages of Turkey's becoming a member of the Customs Union has been inconclusive. The empirical analysis that mostly focus on the changes in the volume of trade without much regard to the conjectural changes have also been insufficient. This study attempts to shed light on this issue in a formal analysis of Turkey's international trade by empirically accounting for the changes before and after the Customs Union Agreement (CUA). In doing so, we explicitly account for the concurrent changes in the macroeconomic environment that may have affected Turkey's trade with the rest of the world. Our empirical findings indicate that CUA has not only positively impacted on Turkey's trade, but also led to changes in the behaviour of both exports and imports with regards to their responsiveness to underlying variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Bilin Neyaptı & Fatma Taskın & Murat Ungor, 2007. "Has European Customs Union Agreement really affected Turkey's trade?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(16), pages 2121-2132.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:39:y:2007:i:16:p:2121-2132
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840600735390
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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher S. P. Magee, 2016. "Trade creation, trade diversion, and the general equilibrium effects of regional trade agreements: a study of the European Community–Turkey customs union," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(2), pages 383-399, May.
    2. Cagri Sarikaya, 2004. "Export Dynamics in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 4(2), pages 41-64.
    3. Sanjeev Vasudevan & M. Suresh Babu, 2021. "Global production sharing and trade effects: an analysis of Eurasian Economic Union," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(4), pages 633-665, December.
    4. Olcay Y. Çulha & M. Utku Özmen & Erdal Yılmaz, 2016. "Impact of oil price changes on Turkey’s exports," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(9), pages 637-641, June.
    5. Sule Akkoyunlu & Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006. "The Effect of Economic Reforms of 1980s and of the Customs Union 1996 upon the Turkish Intra-Industry Trade," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 649, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Olcay Yucel Culha & Mustafa Utku Ozmen & Erdal Yilmaz, 2015. "Petrol Fiyatlarinin Ihracat Uzerindeki Etkisi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1510, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    7. Deger, Cagacan, 2014. "A Note on Shifts in Turkey's International Trade Pattern," MPRA Paper 59817, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Annette Spellerberg & Denis Huschka & Roland Habich, 2006. "Is the Regional Perspective Useful?: Rural and Urban Quality of Life ; an Assessment," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 650, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Türkcan, Kemal, 2014. "Investigating the Role of Extensive Margin, Intensive Margin, Price and Quantity Components on Turkey’s Export Growth during 1998-2011," MPRA Paper 53292, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Natalya Ketenci, 2017. "The Effect of the European Union Customs Union on the Balance of Trade in Turkey," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 52(4), pages 219-232, November.
    11. Türkcan, Kemal & Pişkin, Erhan, 2014. "Ticaret Anlaşmalarının Türkiye’nin İhracat Dinamiğine Etkisi: Yaygın ve Yoğun Ticaret [The Effects of the Trade Agreements on the Dynamics of Turkey’s Export: Extensive and Intensive Margins]," MPRA Paper 59841, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Arzu Akkoyunlu-Wigley & Sevinc Mihci, 2006. "Effects of the customs union with the European Union on the market structure and pricing behaviour of the Turkish manufacturing industry," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(20), pages 2443-2452.
    13. Antonis Adam & Thomas Moutos, 2008. "The Trade Effects of the EU–Turkey Customs Union," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 685-700, May.
    14. M. Hakan Berument & Zulal S. Denaux & Yeliz Yalcin, 2015. "The Inconsistent Response Of Turkish Export Demand To Real Exchange Rate Shocks," Global Journal of Business Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 9(1), pages 49-56.
    15. Berument, M. Hakan & Dincer, N. Nergiz & Mustafaoglu, Zafer, 2014. "External income shocks and Turkish exports: A sectoral analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 476-484.
    16. Şerife ÖZŞAHİN, 2017. "An examination of bilateral J-curve: Evidence from Turkey and her 20 major trading partners," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(611), S), pages 221-236, Summer.
    17. Nazlı Karamollaoğlu & Cihan Yalçin, 2020. "Exports, real exchange rates and dollarization: empirical evidence from Turkish manufacturing firms," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(5), pages 2527-2557, November.
    18. Mario Larch & Aiko F. Schmeißer & Joschka Wanner, 2021. "A Tale of (almost) 1001 Coefficients: The Deep and Heterogeneous Effects of the EU‐Turkey Customs Union," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 242-260, March.
    19. Bulent Esiyok, 2015. "Does Inward Foreign Direct Investment Increase Imports To Turkey? An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 23-35, June.
    20. Utku Utkulu & Dilek Seymen, 2004. "Trade and Competitiveness Between Turkey and the EU: Time Series Evidence," Working Papers 2004/8, Turkish Economic Association, revised Mar 2004.
    21. Saatci, Mustafa & Aslan, Alper, 2007. "TÜRKİYE İMALAT SANAYİNDE İTHALATIN PİYASAYI DİSİPLİNE ETME HİPOTEZİNİN TESTİ: PANEL VERi YAKLASIMI," MPRA Paper 10604, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. N. Nergiz Dincer & Pinar Yasar, 2015. "Identification of Current Account Deficit: The Case of Turkey," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 63-87, March.
    23. Tonus, Özgür, 2007. "Gümrük Birliği sonrasında Türkiye'de dışa açıklık ve sanayileşme [Openness and industrialization in Turkey after the Customs Union]," MPRA Paper 7121, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Pişkin, Erhan, 2017. "Türkiye İhracatının Ölüm-Kalım Meselesi [The Matter of Survival for Turkish Exports]," MPRA Paper 81459, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Aslan, Alper & Kula, Ferit, 2008. "Türkiye İmalat Sanayinde Fiyat-Maliyet Marjları: Dönemler ve Sektörler İtibariyle Karsılastırmalı Bir Analiz," MPRA Paper 10606, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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