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Has European Customs Union Agreement really affected Turkey's trade?


  • Bilin Neyaptı
  • Fatma Taskın
  • Murat Ungor


The numerous discussions regarding the advantages and disadvantages of Turkey's becoming a member of the Customs Union has been inconclusive. The empirical analysis that mostly focus on the changes in the volume of trade without much regard to the conjectural changes have also been insufficient. This study attempts to shed light on this issue in a formal analysis of Turkey's international trade by empirically accounting for the changes before and after the Customs Union Agreement (CUA). In doing so, we explicitly account for the concurrent changes in the macroeconomic environment that may have affected Turkey's trade with the rest of the world. Our empirical findings indicate that CUA has not only positively impacted on Turkey's trade, but also led to changes in the behaviour of both exports and imports with regards to their responsiveness to underlying variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Bilin Neyaptı & Fatma Taskın & Murat Ungor, 2007. "Has European Customs Union Agreement really affected Turkey's trade?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(16), pages 2121-2132.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:39:y:2007:i:16:p:2121-2132
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840600735390

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Mercenier, Jean & Yeldan, Erinc, 1997. "On Turkey's trade policy: Is a customs union with Europe enough?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 871-880, April.
    2. Josef Brada & Ali Kutan & Su Zhou, 1997. "The exchange rate and the balance of trade: The Turkish experience," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5), pages 675-692.
    3. Selahattin Bekmez, 2002. "Sectoral Impacts of Turkish Accession to the European Union: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 57-84, March.
    4. Marian E. Bond, 1987. "An Econometric Study of Primary Commodity Exports from Developing Country Regions to the World," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(2), pages 191-227, June.
    5. Murray, Tracy & Ginman, Peter J, 1976. "An Empirical Examination of the Traditional Aggregate Import Demand Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 58(1), pages 75-80, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher S. P. Magee, 2016. "Trade creation, trade diversion, and the general equilibrium effects of regional trade agreements: a study of the European Community–Turkey customs union," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(2), pages 383-399, May.
    2. Türkcan, Kemal & Pişkin, Erhan, 2014. "Ticaret Anlaşmalarının Türkiye’nin İhracat Dinamiğine Etkisi: Yaygın ve Yoğun Ticaret
      [The Effects of the Trade Agreements on the Dynamics of Turkey’s Export: Extensive and Intensive Margins]
      ," MPRA Paper 59841, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Cagri Sarikaya, 2004. "Export Dynamics in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 4(2), pages 41-64.
    4. Olcay Yucel Culha & Mustafa Utku Ozmen & Erdal Yilmaz, 2015. "Petrol Fiyatlarinin Ihracat Uzerindeki Etkisi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1510, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    5. Deger, Cagacan, 2014. "A Note on Shifts in Turkey's International Trade Pattern," MPRA Paper 59817, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Türkcan, Kemal, 2014. "Investigating the Role of Extensive Margin, Intensive Margin, Price and Quantity Components on Turkey’s Export Growth during 1998-2011," MPRA Paper 53292, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. repec:sae:fortra:v:52:y:2017:i:4:p:219-232 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Arzu Akkoyunlu-Wigley & Sevinc Mihci, 2006. "Effects of the customs union with the European Union on the market structure and pricing behaviour of the Turkish manufacturing industry," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(20), pages 2443-2452.
    9. Berument, M. Hakan & Dincer, N. Nergiz & Mustafaoglu, Zafer, 2014. "External income shocks and Turkish exports: A sectoral analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 476-484.
    10. Natalya Ketenci, 2017. "The Effect of the European Union Customs Union on the Balance of Trade in Turkey," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 52(4), pages 219-232, November.
    11. Bulent Esiyok, 2015. "Does Inward Foreign Direct Investment Increase Imports To Turkey? An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 23-35, June.
    12. Utku Utkulu & Dilek Seymen, 2004. "Trade and Competitiveness Between Turkey and the EU: Time Series Evidence," Working Papers 2004/8, Turkish Economic Association, revised Mar 2004.
    13. Saatci, Mustafa & Aslan, Alper, 2007. "TÜRKİYE İMALAT SANAYİNDE İTHALATIN PİYASAYI DİSİPLİNE ETME HİPOTEZİNİN TESTİ: PANEL VERi YAKLASIMI," MPRA Paper 10604, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. N. Nergiz Dincer & Pinar Yasar, 2015. "Identification of Current Account Deficit: The Case of Turkey," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 63-87, March.
    15. Tonus, Özgür, 2007. "Gümrük Birliği sonrasında Türkiye'de dışa açıklık ve sanayileşme
      [Openness and industrialization in Turkey after the Customs Union]
      ," MPRA Paper 7121, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Aslan, Alper & Kula, Ferit, 2008. "Türkiye İmalat Sanayinde Fiyat-Maliyet Marjları: Dönemler ve Sektörler İtibariyle Karsılastırmalı Bir Analiz," MPRA Paper 10606, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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