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Has European Customs Union Agreement really affected Turkey's trade?

  • Bilin Neyaptı
  • Fatma Taskın
  • Murat Ungor

The numerous discussions regarding the advantages and disadvantages of Turkey's becoming a member of the Customs Union has been inconclusive. The empirical analysis that mostly focus on the changes in the volume of trade without much regard to the conjectural changes have also been insufficient. This study attempts to shed light on this issue in a formal analysis of Turkey's international trade by empirically accounting for the changes before and after the Customs Union Agreement (CUA). In doing so, we explicitly account for the concurrent changes in the macroeconomic environment that may have affected Turkey's trade with the rest of the world. Our empirical findings indicate that CUA has not only positively impacted on Turkey's trade, but also led to changes in the behaviour of both exports and imports with regards to their responsiveness to underlying variables.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 39 (2007)
Issue (Month): 16 ()
Pages: 2121-2132

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:39:y:2007:i:16:p:2121-2132
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  1. Selahattin Bekmez, 2002. "Sectoral Impacts of Turkish Accession to the European Union: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Eastern European Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 40(2), pages 57-84, March.
  2. Murray, Tracy & Ginman, Peter J, 1976. "An Empirical Examination of the Traditional Aggregate Import Demand Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 58(1), pages 75-80, February.
  3. J. Mercenier & Erin Yeldan, 1996. "On Turkey's Trade Policy : Is A Customs Union with Europe Enough?," Working Papers 9604, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
  4. Marian E. Bond, 1987. "An Econometric Study of Primary Commodity Exports from Developing Country Regions to the World," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(2), pages 191-227, June.
  5. Josef Brada & Ali Kutan & Su Zhou, 1997. "The exchange rate and the balance of trade: The Turkish experience," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5), pages 675-692.
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