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Trade and currency weapons

Author

Listed:
  • Agnès Bénassy-Quéré

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Matthieu Bussière

    (Banque de France - Banque de France - Banque de France)

  • Pauline Wibaux

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

The debate on trade and currency wars has reemerged since the Global Financial Crisis. We study the two forms of noncooperative policies within a single framework. First, we compare the elasticity of trade flows to import tariffs and to the real exchange rate, based on product-level data for 110 countries over the 1989–2013 period. We find that a 1% depreciation of the importer's currency reduces imports by around 0.5% in current dollar, whereas an increase in import tariffs by 1 percentage point reduces imports by around 1.4%. Hence, the two instruments are not equivalent. Second, we build a stylized short-term macroeconomic model where the government aims at internal and external balance. We find that, in this setting, monetary policy is more stabilizing for the economy than trade policy. One implication is that, in normal times, a country will more likely react to a trade "aggression" through monetary easing rather than through a tariff increase. However, both instruments are (imperfect) substitutes in the short term, when only one of them is available.

Suggested Citation

  • Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Matthieu Bussière & Pauline Wibaux, 2021. "Trade and currency weapons," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-03672235, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-03672235
    DOI: 10.1111/roie.12517
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeanne, Olivier & Son, Jeongwon, 2024. "To what extent are tariffs offset by exchange rates?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    2. Thorbecke, Willem & Salike, Nimesh & Chen, Chen, 2022. "The impact of exchange rate changes on the Japanese chemical industry," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    3. Angella Faith Montfaucon, 2022. "Invoicing Currency and Symmetric Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Tariffs: Evidence from Malawian Imports from the EU," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 191-207.
    4. Thorbecke, Willem & Chen, Chen & Salike, Nimesh, 2021. "China’s exports in a protectionist world," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Willem THORBECKE & Chen CHEN & Nimesh SALIKE, 2025. "The Diminishing Impact of Exchange Rates on China’s Exports," Discussion papers 25010, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    6. Stéphane Auray & Devereux Michael B. & Aurélien Eyquem, 2020. "Trade Wars, Currency Wars," Post-Print halshs-03031865, HAL.
    7. Thorbecke, Willem, 2019. "East Asian value chains, exchange rates, and regional exchange rate arrangements," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. Chen CHEN & Nimesh SALIKE & Willem THORBECKE, 2025. "Exchange Rates and Tariffs: Unravelling their impacts on China's ICT exports while accounting for product sophistication," Discussion papers 25054, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    9. Willem THORBECKE & Chen CHEN & Nimesh SALIKE, 2024. "Do Traditional Models or the Dominant Currency Paradigm Explain China’s Export Behavior?," Discussion papers 24062, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    10. Willem THORBECKE & Nimesh SALIKE & Chen CHEN, 2020. "Product Complexity, Exports, and Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Japanese Chemical Industry," Discussion papers 20085, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    11. Chen Chen & Nimesh Salike & Willem Thorbecke, 2023. "Exchange rate effects on China's exports: Product sophistication and exchange rate elasticity," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 37(3), pages 371-400, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General

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