IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

On Trade Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility and Institutional Quality: The Case of Central European Countries

  • Ferto, Imre
  • Fogarasi, Jozsef

This paper explores the effect of exchange rate volatility and of the institutional quality on international trade flows of transition economies in Central European Countries by applying a gravity model of balance panel between 1999 and 2008. The results show that nominal exchange rate volatility has had a significant negative effect on trade by applying Psuedo-Maximum-Likelihood (PML) estimator method over this period. The institutional quality need to be improved in case of size of government and the quality of regulation. The negative effect of exchange rate volatility on agricultural exports suggests that joining Central European Countries to the euro zone can reduce the negative effects of exchange rate volatility on trade.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122510
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland with number 122510.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 23 Feb 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa123:122510
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.eaae.org
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 49-63.
  2. McKenzie, Michael D. & Brooks, Robert D., 1997. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on German-US trade flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 73-87, April.
  3. Viaene, J-M. & De Vries, C.G., 1989. "International Trade And Exchange Rate Volatility," Papers 8905, Erasmus University of Rotterdam - Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Robert Mundell, 2000. "Currency Areas, Exchange Rate Systems and International Monetary Reform," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 167, Universidad del CEMA.
  5. Sun, Changyou & Kim, Mina & Koo, Won W. & Cho, Guedae & Jin, Hyun Joung, 2002. "The Effect Of Exchange Rate Volatility On Wheat Trade Worldwide," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19766, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  6. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
  7. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(2), pages 441-487, 05.
  8. Khalid Sekkat & Pierre-Guillaume Méon, 2008. "Institutional quality and trade: which institutions? Which trade?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7372, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  9. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1998. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Intervention: Implications of the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," CEPR Discussion Papers 1982, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Daniel Berkowitz & Johannes Moenius & Katharina Pistor, 2006. "Trade, Law, and Product Complexity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 363-373, May.
  11. Keith E. Maskus, 1986. "Exchange rate risk and U.S. trade: a sectoral analysis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Mar, pages 16-28.
  12. Stefan Bojnec & Imre Fertő, 2008. "European Enlargement and Agro-Food Trade," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 56(4), pages 563-579, December.
  13. Bordo, Michael David, 1980. "The Effects of Monetary Change on Relative Commodity Prices and the Role of Long-Term Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1088-1109, December.
  14. Nathan Nunn, 2005. "Relationship Specificity, Incomplete Contracts and the Pattern of Trade," International Trade 0512018, EconWPA.
  15. Ivan T. Kandilov, 2008. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Agricultural Trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1028-1043.
  16. Mayer, Thierry & Zignago, Soledad, 2006. "Notes on CEPII’s distances measures," MPRA Paper 26469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Peree, Eric & Steinherr, Alfred, 1989. "Exchange rate uncertainty and foreign trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1241-1264, July.
  18. Qian, Ying & Varangis, Panos, 1994. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Hinder Export Growth?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 371-96.
  19. Imre Fertő, 2008. "The evolution of agri-food trade patterns in Central European countries," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 1-10.
  20. BOJNEC, Stefan & FERTO, Imre, 2009. "Determinants of agro-food trade competition of Central European countries with the European Union," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 327-337, June.
  21. Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "On the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility," Working Papers 03-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  22. Bakucs, Lajos Zoltan & Ferto, Imre, 2005. "Monetary Impacts and Overshooting of Agricultural Prices in a Transition Economy," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24711, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  23. Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
  24. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  25. Wang, Kai-Li & Barrett, Christopher B., 2007. "Estimating the Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export Volumes," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(02), August.
  26. Andrei A. Levchenko, 2007. "Institutional Quality and International Trade," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 791-819.
  27. Guedae Cho & Ian M. Sheldon & Steve McCorriston, 2002. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Agricultural Trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(4), pages 931-942.
  28. Egger, Hartmut, 2002. "International Outsourcing in a Two-Sector Heckscher-Ohlin Model," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 17, pages 687-709.
  29. Yuan, Yan & Awokuse, Titus O., 2003. "Exchange Rate Volatility And U.S. Poultry Exports: Evidence From Panel Data," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22083, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  30. Wei, Shang-Jin, 1999. "Currency hedging and goods trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1371-1394, June.
  31. Laszlo Matyas, 1997. "Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 363-368, 05.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:eaa123:122510. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.