Investigation the Role of Exchange Rate Volatility on Iran's Agricultural Exports (Case Study: Date, Pistachio and Saffron)
Modern methods of quantitative risk analysis, specifically value-at-risk and expected shortfall approach, provide comprehensive and coherent risk evaluation throughout entire distribution of outcomes and can take agricultural business from the realm of uncertainty to specific, quantified risks. Monte Carlo simulation with autocorrelation of standard deviation shows the best results in risk modeling and is used for this research. The analysis showed that production risk is systemic within climatic regions of Ukraine with coefficients of correlation ranging from 0.25 to 0.85. Yield correlation among crops in several oblasts is low to negative, creating opportunities for diversification. However, positive price-yield correlation is dominant for agricultural products in Ukraine due to high dependency on global prices and a large share of export. It is hypothesized that price-yield correlation is directly proportional to the share of countryâ€™s international trade in that agricultural product.
Volume (Year): 4 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Kamycka 129, 165 21 Praha 6 - Suchdol|
Web page: http://online.agris.cz/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Caglayan, M. & Baum, C.F. & Barkoulas, J.T., 1998.
"Exchange Rate Effects on the Volume and Variability of Trade Flows,"
1998/05, Koc University.
- Barkoulas, John T. & Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2002. "Exchange rate effects on the volume and variability of trade flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 481-496, August.
- John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 1998. "Exchange Rate Effects on the Volume and Variability of Trade Flows," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 405., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 Sep 2001.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Eleanor Doyle, 2001. "Exchange rate volatility and Irish-UK trade, 1979-1992," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 249-265.
- Viaene, J-M. & De Vries, C.G., 1989.
"International Trade And Exchange Rate Volatility,"
8905, Erasmus University of Rotterdam - Institute for Economic Research.
- Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1998.
"Exchange rate volatility and intervention: implications of the theory of optimum currency areas,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 191-209, August.
- Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1998. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Intervention: Implications of the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," CEPR Discussion Papers 1982, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Guedae Cho & Ian M. Sheldon & Steve McCorriston, 2002. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Agricultural Trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(4), pages 931-942.
- Robert Mundell, 2000.
"Currency Areas, Exchange Rate Systems and International Monetary Reform,"
CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo.
167, Universidad del CEMA.
- Robert Mundell, 2000. "Currency Areas, Exchange Rate Systems and International Monetary Reform," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 217-256, November.
- Chit, Myint Moe & Rizov, Marian & Willenbockel, Dirk, 2008.
"Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies,"
9014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Myint Moe Chit & Marian Rizov & Dirk Willenbockel, 2010. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 239-263, 02.
- Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
- Michel Demers, 1991. "Investment under Uncertainty, Irreversibility and the Arrival of Information Over Time," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 333-350.
- Glauco De vita & Andrew Abbott, 2004. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on UK Exports to EU Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(1), pages 62-81, 02.
- Ethier, Wilfred, 1973. "International Trade and the Forward Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 494-503, June.
- Sercu, Piet & Vanhulle, Cynthia, 1992. "Exchange rate volatility, international trade, and the value of exporting firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 155-182, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aolpei:131355. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.