IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/yca/wpaper/2008_03.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effects of Foreign Price Uncertainty on Australian Production and Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Elie Appelbaum

    (York University, Canada)

  • Alan D. Woodland

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Sydney)

Abstract

This paper provides a framework for the empirical analysis of the role of uncertain international prices for the Australian economy’s production sector and its international trade. We model the movement of traded goods prices via a bivariate GARCH model and embed this within an expected utility maximizing model of the production sector. We find that the empirical results are consistent with expected utility maximization and that the hypothesis of risk neutrality is soundly rejected. Estimates of the effects of changes in expected prices and volatility of traded goods prices upon production decisions and the return to capital are presented and discussed, as are the impacts of changes in output growth of Australia’s major trading partners. The overall conclusion is that price uncertainty matters for the Australian production sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Elie Appelbaum & Alan D. Woodland, 2008. "The Effects of Foreign Price Uncertainty on Australian Production and Trade," Working Papers 2008_03, York University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:yca:wpaper:2008_03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dept.econ.yorku.ca/research/workingPapers/working_papers/2008/trade.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rulon D. Pope, 2003. "Agricultural Risk Analysis: Adequacy of Models, Data, and Issues," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1249-1256.
    2. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    3. Subal C. Kumbhakar, 2002. "Risk preference and productivity measurement under output price uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 461-472.
    4. James M. Poterba, 1994. "International Comparisons of Household Saving," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number pote94-1.
    5. Graeme Wells & Lewis Evans, 1985. "The Impact of Traded Goods Prices on the New Zealand Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 61(1), pages 421-435, March.
    6. Chowdhury, Abdur R, 1993. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Depress Trade Flows? Evidence from Error-Correction Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 700-706, November.
    7. repec:bla:ecorec:v:70:y:1994:i:209:p:204-19 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Pozo, Susan, 1992. "Conditional Exchange-Rate Volatility and the Volume of International Trade: Evidence from the Early 1900s," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(2), pages 325-329, May.
    9. [anon.], 1994. "Strategy on International Fisheries Research: an update," Naga, The WorldFish Center, vol. 17(3), pages 18-19.
    10. Sandmo, Agnar, 1971. "On the Theory of the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 65-73, March.
    11. ., 1994. "International Economic Policy," Chapters, in: Geoffrey M. Hodgson & Warren J. Samuels & Marc R. Tool (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Institutional and Evolutionary Economics, volume 0, chapter 81, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Wolak, Frank A & Kolstad, Charles D, 1991. "A Model of Homogeneous Input Demand under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 514-538, June.
    13. David W. R. Gruen & Jenny Wilkinson, 1994. "Australia's Real Exchange Rate–Is it Explained by the Terms of Trade or by Real Interest Differentials?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(209), pages 204-219, June.
    14. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Holt, Matthew T, 1996. "Economic Behavior under Uncertainty: A Joint Analysis of Risk Preferences and Technology," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(2), pages 329-335, May.
    15. -, 1994. "International economic highlights 1993," Oficina de la CEPAL en Washington (Estudios e Investigaciones) 28945, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    16. Satyanarayan, Sudhakar, 1999. "Econometric tests of firm decision making under dual sources of uncertainty," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 315-325, July.
    17. ., 1994. "International Economic Relations," Chapters, in: Geoffrey M. Hodgson & Warren J. Samuels & Marc R. Tool (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Institutional and Evolutionary Economics, volume 0, chapter 82, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Ozturk, 2006. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: A Literature Survey," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(1), pages 85-102.
    19. Appelbaum, E., 1989. "Uncertainty And The Measurement Of Productivity," Papers 89-05, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
    20. Appelbaum, Elie & Kohli, Ulrich, 1998. "Import-Price Uncertainty, Production Decisions, and Relative Factor Shares," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 345-360, August.
    21. David Gruen & Geoffrey Shuetrim, 1994. "Internationalisation and the Macroeconomy," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Philip Lowe & Jacqueline Dwyer (ed.),International Intergration of the Australian Economy, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    22. Elie Appelbaum & Aman Ullah, 1997. "Estimation Of Moments And Production Decisions Under Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 631-637, November.
    23. repec:bla:ecorec:v:61:y:1985:i:172:p:421-35 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Mckenzie, Michael D., 1998. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on Australian trade flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 21-38, January.
    25. John Pitchford, 1993. "The Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Policy in Australia," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Adrian Blundell-Wignall (ed.),The Exchange Rate, International Trade and the Balance of Payments, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    26. Koray, Faik & Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 708-712, November.
    27. Kreps, David M & Porteus, Evan L, 1978. "Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and Dynamic Choice Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 185-200, January.
    28. Appelbaum, Elie, 2006. "A framework for empirical applications of production theory without expected utility," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 290-302.
    29. Elie Appelbaum & Ulrich Kohli, 1997. "Import Price Uncertainty And The Distribution Of Income," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 620-630, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hiroshi Nakamura & Naohiko Wakutsu, 2019. "Reducing pharmaceutical reimbursement price risk to lower national health expenditures without lowering R&D incentives," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 75-88, January.
    2. Appelbaum, Elie & Kohli, Ulrich, 1998. "Import-Price Uncertainty, Production Decisions, and Relative Factor Shares," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 345-360, August.
    3. Nakamura, Hiroshi & Wakutsu, Naohiko, 2020. "Reducing Reimbursement Drug Price Risk to Enhance R&D Incentives without Raising Drug Prices/Expenditures: Implications of Simulations Based on Questionnaire Survey of Pharmaceutical Companies in Japa," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(7), pages 714-720.
    4. Elie Appelbaum & Aman Ullah, 1997. "Estimation Of Moments And Production Decisions Under Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 631-637, November.
    5. Andrew Muhammad, 2015. "Price Risk and Exporter Competition in China's Soybean Market," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 188-197, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mauricio Vaz Lobo Bittencourt & Paula Andrea Mosquera Agudelo, 2021. "The impacts of the exchange rate volatility on colombian trade with its main trade partners," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Finanzas, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 18(2), pages 57-81, Julio-Dic.
    2. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2015. "Exchange volatility and trade performance in Morocco and Tunisia: what have we learned so far?," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 244-274, November.
    3. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Berke, Burcu & McMillan, David G., 2020. "Exchange rate volatility in the eurozone," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 14, pages 1-23.
    4. Tomasz Gerard Czekaj & Arne Henningsen, 2013. "Panel Data Nonparametric Estimation of Production Risk and Risk Preferences: An Application to Polish Dairy Farms," IFRO Working Paper 2013/6, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    5. Yuan, Yan & Awokuse, Titus O., 2003. "Exchange Rate Volatility And U.S. Poultry Exports: Evidence From Panel Data," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22083, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Subal Kumbhakar & Efthymios Tsionas, 2010. "Estimation of production risk and risk preference function: a nonparametric approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 176(1), pages 369-378, April.
    7. Ali Uzun, 2004. "Assessing internationality of scholarly journals through foreign authorship patterns: the case of major journals in information science, and scientometrics," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 61(3), pages 457-465, November.
    8. Kang-Soek Lee & Philippe Saucier, 2005. "La coopération monétaire régionale est-elle un préalable à l'intégration commerciale de l'Asie ?," Mondes en développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 130(2), pages 95-110.
    9. Innocent U Duru & Millicent Adanne Eze & Abubakar Sadiq Saleh & Benedict I Uzoechina & Gabriel O Ebenyi & Ekechi Chukwuka, 2022. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: The Nigerian Scenario," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 12(1), pages 11-28.
    10. Alan Woodland & Kishti Sen, 2010. "The volatility of Australian traded goods' prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(30), pages 3849-3869.
    11. Cherchye, L. & Post, G.T., 2001. "Methodological Advances in Dea," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2001-53-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    12. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2016. "A Synthesis of the Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade: A Meta-Regression Analysis," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 263-294, August.
    13. Robert G. Chambers & Margarita Genius & Vangelis Tzouvelekas, 2021. "Invariant Risk Preferences and Supply Response under Price Risk," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(5), pages 1802-1819, October.
    14. Khayyat, Nabaz T. & Heshmati, Almas, 2014. "Production Risk, Energy Use Efficiency and Productivity of Korean Industries," IZA Discussion Papers 8081, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Tsionas, Mike G., 2016. "Parameters measuring bank risk and their estimation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(1), pages 291-304.
    16. Alghalith, Moawia, 2010. "Preferences estimation without approximation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 1144-1146, December.
    17. Elie Appelbaum, 1996. "An Application of Duality under Uncertainty, Elie Appelbaum," Working Papers 1996_8, York University, Department of Economics.
    18. Antoine Gervais, 2021. "Global sourcing under uncertainty," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 1103-1135, November.
    19. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2015. "A synthesis of the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on international trade via Meta-Regression analysis," MPRA Paper 65737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Chou, W. L., 2000. "Exchange Rate Variability and China's Exports," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 61-79, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Price uncertainty; production under risk; expected utility maximization; international trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:yca:wpaper:2008_03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Support (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dyorkca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.