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La coopération monétaire régionale est-elle un préalable à l'intégration commerciale de l'Asie ?

  • Kang-Soek Lee
  • Philippe Saucier
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    This paper assesses the influence of exchange rates volatility among Asian countries on intra-regional trade. Results indicate that exchange rates stabilization through regional monetary cooperation is an important stake, or even a prerequisite, to a deepening of trade integration of the region. Analysis relates volatility, estimated with an ARCH/GARCH process, to trade within a gravitational model.

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    Article provided by De Boeck Université in its journal Mondes en développement.

    Volume (Year): 130 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 95-110

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    Handle: RePEc:cai:meddbu:med_130_0095
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-mondes-en-developpement.htm

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    1. Graham Bird & Ramkishen Rajan, 2002. "Optimal currency baskets and the third currency phenomenon: exchange rate policy in Southeast Asia," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(8), pages 1053-1073.
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    3. McKenzie, Michael D. & Brooks, Robert D., 1997. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on German-US trade flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 73-87, April.
    4. Ogawa, Eiji & Ito, Takatoshi, 2002. "On the Desirability of a Regional Basket Currency Arrangement," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 317-334, September.
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    6. Qian, Ying & Varangis, Panos, 1994. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Hinder Export Growth?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 371-96.
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    8. Koray, Faik & Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 708-12, November.
    9. Mckenzie, Michael D., 1998. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on Australian trade flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 21-38, January.
    10. Adrian R. Pagan & G. William Schwert, 1990. "Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility," NBER Working Papers 2955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2001. "Fixing for your life," MPRA Paper 13873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Chou, W. L., 2000. "Exchange Rate Variability and China's Exports," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 61-79, March.
    13. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 1998. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Trade Flows; Evidence From the European Union," IMF Working Papers 98/107, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Benassy-Quere, Agnes, 1999. "Optimal Pegs for East Asian Currencies," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 44-60, March.
    15. Robert A. Mundell, 2002. "The international monetary system: quo vadis," Discussion Papers 0102-34, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
    16. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04.
    17. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Lastrapes, William D., 1993. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade: Reduced form estimates using the GARCH-in-mean model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 298-318, June.
    18. Chowdhury, Abdur R, 1993. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Depress Trade Flows? Evidence from Error-Correction Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 700-706, November.
    19. Caporale, Tony & Doroodian, Khosrow, 1994. "Exchange rate variability and the flow of international trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 49-54, September.
    20. Ethier, Wilfred, 1973. "International Trade and the Forward Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 494-503, June.
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