Turk Lirasi Reel Kuru Denge Degerinde Mi?
Reel kur cok sayida makroekonomik degiskeni etkileyen onemli bir gostergedir. Bu calismada Turk Lirasi reel kurunun uzun dönemli denge degeri ve bu denge degerinden ne kadar uzakta oldugu ekonometrik olarak incelenmistir. Tamamen Degistirilmis En Kucuk Kareler Yontemi (FMOLS) kullanilarak olusturulan uzun vadeli modelde, reel kur bagimli degisken olarak ve “Turkiye ve OECD Ulkelerinin Goreli Birim Is Gucu Maliyetleri”, “Turkiye’ye Yurt Disindan Sermaye Akimlari”, “Turkiye’nin GSYH’si”, “Dis Ticaret Hacmi/GSYH Orani” bagimsiz degiskenler olarak alinmistir. Regresyon analizinin sonuclari, Balassa-Samuelson etkisini dogrulamaktadir; Turkiye’nin buyume oraninin artmasi reel kura degerlenme yonunde etki etmektedir. Dis Ticaret Hacminde meydana gelen artis TL’yi deger kazandirma yonunde etkilemektedir. Turkiye’ye yurt disindan sermaye girislerinin TL’de degerlenme baskisi yarattigi gorulmektedir. OECD ulkelerinin Turkiye’ye goreli olarak is gucu maliyetlerinin artisi reel kura deger kaybettirmekte, soz konusu ulkelerin rekabet gucunun azalmasina, Turkiye’nin rekabet gucunun ise artisina yol acmaktadir. Analiz sonuclari, son donemde TL reel kurunun denge degerine yakin seviyelerde oldugunu gostermektedir. Makale, kurun denge degerine politika mudahalesi yapilip yapilmamasi konusunu da tartismaya acmaktadir.
Volume (Year): 13 (2013)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://iibf.ege.edu.tr/ENG/|
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Andrew Berg & Yanliang Miao, 2010. "The Real Exchange Rate and Growth Revisited; The Washington Consensus Strikes Back?," IMF Working Papers 10/58, International Monetary Fund.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999.
"The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000.
"Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
[The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]," MPRA Paper 13842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
- Schwert, G William, 1989. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(2), pages 147-159, April.
- G. William Schwert, 1988. "Tests For Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
- Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Joseph Joyce & Linda Kamas, 2003. "Real and nominal determinants of real exchange rates in Latin America: Short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(6), pages 155-182.
- Joyce, J.P. & Kamas, L., 1997. "Real and Nominal Determinants of Real Exchange Rates in Latin America: Short-Run Dynamics and Long-Run Equilibrium," Papers 97-05, Wellesley College - Department of Economics.
- Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2009. "Currency Misalignments and Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging and Developing Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 121-136, 02.
- Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2008. "Currency Misalignments and Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging and Developing Countries," Working Papers 2008-07, CEPII research center.
- Alper, C. Emre & Saglam, Ismail, 1999. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 1924, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
- Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
- Elliott, Graham, 1999. "Efficient Tests for a Unit Root When the Initial Observation Is Drawn from Its Unconditional Distribution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 767-783, August.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "GLSDETREND: RATS procedure to perform local to unity GLS detrending," Statistical Software Components RTS00077, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "ERSTEST: RATS procedure to perform Elliott-Rothenberg-Stock unit root tests," Statistical Software Components RTS00066, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Umit Ozale & Erinc Yeldan, 2002. "Measuring Exchange Rate Misalignment," Working Papers 0206, Economic Research Forum, revised 14 Feb 2002.
- Coudert, Virginie & Couharde, Cecile, 2007. "Real equilibrium exchange rate in China is the renminbi undervalued?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 568-594, August.
- William R. Cline & John Williamson, 2011. "Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, May 2011," Policy Briefs PB11-5, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Sebastian Edwards, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes, Capital Flows and Crisis Prevention," NBER Working Papers 8529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jorge Carrera & Romain Restout, 2008. "Long Run Determinants of Real Exchange Rates in Latin America," Post-Print halshs-00276402, HAL.
- Jorge Carrera & Romain Restout, 2008. "Long Run Determinants of Real Exchange Rates in Latin America," Working Papers 0811, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure.
- Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584-584.
- Lahcen Achy & Khalid Sekkat, 2003. "The European Single Currency and MENA's Exports to Europe," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(4), pages 563-582, November.
- Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
- Ghura, Dhaneshwar & Grennes, Thomas J., 1993. "The real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 155-174, October.
- Burkart, Oliver & Coudert, Virginie, 2002. "Leading indicators of currency crises for emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 107-133, June.
- Schnatz, Bernd, 1998. "Macroeconomic determinants of currency turbulences in emerging markets," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1998,03e, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Hulya Saygili & Mesut Saygili & Gokhan Yilmaz, 2010. "Turkiye icin Yeni Reel Efektif Doviz Kuru Endeksleri," Working Papers 1012, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ege:journl:v:13:y:2013:i:4:p:405-426. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Baris Gök)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.