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Turk Lirasi Reel Kuru Denge Degerinde Mi?

  • Guzin BAYAR


    (Orta Dogu Teknik Universitesi, Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakultesi, Iktisat Bolumu)

  • Selman TOKPUNAR


    (Gazi Universitesi, Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakultesi, Ekonometri Bolumu)

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    Reel kur cok sayida makroekonomik degiskeni etkileyen onemli bir gostergedir. Bu calismada Turk Lirasi reel kurunun uzun dönemli denge degeri ve bu denge degerinden ne kadar uzakta oldugu ekonometrik olarak incelenmistir. Tamamen Degistirilmis En Kucuk Kareler Yontemi (FMOLS) kullanilarak olusturulan uzun vadeli modelde, reel kur bagimli degisken olarak ve “Turkiye ve OECD Ulkelerinin Goreli Birim Is Gucu Maliyetleri”, “Turkiye’ye Yurt Disindan Sermaye Akimlari”, “Turkiye’nin GSYH’si”, “Dis Ticaret Hacmi/GSYH Orani” bagimsiz degiskenler olarak alinmistir. Regresyon analizinin sonuclari, Balassa-Samuelson etkisini dogrulamaktadir; Turkiye’nin buyume oraninin artmasi reel kura degerlenme yonunde etki etmektedir. Dis Ticaret Hacminde meydana gelen artis TL’yi deger kazandirma yonunde etkilemektedir. Turkiye’ye yurt disindan sermaye girislerinin TL’de degerlenme baskisi yarattigi gorulmektedir. OECD ulkelerinin Turkiye’ye goreli olarak is gucu maliyetlerinin artisi reel kura deger kaybettirmekte, soz konusu ulkelerin rekabet gucunun azalmasina, Turkiye’nin rekabet gucunun ise artisina yol acmaktadir. Analiz sonuclari, son donemde TL reel kurunun denge degerine yakin seviyelerde oldugunu gostermektedir. Makale, kurun denge degerine politika mudahalesi yapilip yapilmamasi konusunu da tartismaya acmaktadir.

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    Article provided by Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences in its journal Ege Academic Review.

    Volume (Year): 13 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 405-426

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    Handle: RePEc:ege:journl:v:13:y:2013:i:4:p:405-426
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