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The Dominant Currency Financing Channel of External Adjustment

Author

Listed:
  • Camila Casas
  • Sergii Meleshchuk
  • Yannick Timmer

Abstract

We propose a new channel through which exchange rates affect trade. Exploiting the heterogeneity in firms’ foreign currency debt maturity structure around a large depreciation in Colombia, we show that debt revaluation compresses imports due to higher delinquencies and interest rates, while exports are unaffected. Natural and financial hedging successfully mute the import contraction. A costly state verification model with dominant currency financing (DCF) and exporting rationalizes these findings. Quantitatively, DCF explains a significant part of external adjustment in addition to the expenditure switching channel. Pricing exports in the dominant vs. producer currency mutes the effect of DCF on trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Camila Casas & Sergii Meleshchuk & Yannick Timmer, 2023. "The Dominant Currency Financing Channel of External Adjustment," CESifo Working Paper Series 10514, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10514
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    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp10514.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    imports; exports; foreign currency exposure; capital structure; exchange rates; debt revaluation; hedging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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