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The Dominant Currency Financing Channel of External Adjustment

Author

Listed:
  • Camila Casas
  • Sergii Meleshchuk
  • Yannick Timmer

Abstract

We propose a new channel through which exchange rates affect trade. Exploiting the heterogeneity in firms’ foreign currency debt maturity structure around a large depreciation in Colombia, we show that debt revaluation compresses imports due to higher delinquencies and interest rates, while exports are unaffected. Natural and financial hedging successfully mute the import contraction. A costly state verification model with dominant currency financing (DCF) and exporting rationalizes these findings. Quantitatively, DCF explains a significant part of external adjustment in addition to the expenditure switching channel. Pricing exports in the dominant vs. producer currency mutes the effect of DCF on trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Camila Casas & Sergii Meleshchuk & Yannick Timmer, 2023. "The Dominant Currency Financing Channel of External Adjustment," CESifo Working Paper Series 10514, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10514
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    2. Joana Garcia & João Amador, 2023. "Currency choices and the role of the U.S. dollar in international services trade," Working Papers w202316, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Frohm, Erik, 2023. "Dominant currencies and the export supply channel," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-18.
    4. Kim, Minsuk & Mano, Rui C. & Mrkaic, Mico, 2024. "Do FX interventions lead to higher FX debt? Evidence from firm-level data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    5. Dandy Badimo & Zhao Yuhuan, 2025. "The effect of exchange rate (regime) on Botswana’s inbound leisure tourism demand," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 8909-8934, April.
    6. Moro, Alessandro & Nispi Landi, Valerio, 2024. "The external financial spillovers of CBDCs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    7. Juan Esteban Carranza & Camila Casas & Alejandra Ximena González-Ramírez, 2020. "The Colombian peso depreciation of 2014-2015 and the adjustment of trade in the manufacturing sector," Borradores de Economia 1125, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Ms. Emine Boz & Camila Casas & Georgios Georgiadis & Ms. Gita Gopinath & Helena Le Mezo & Arnaud Mehl & Miss Tra Nguyen, 2020. "Patterns in Invoicing Currency in Global Trade," IMF Working Papers 2020/126, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Ding, Ding & Timmer, Yannick, 2023. "Exchange rate elasticities of international tourism and the role of dominant currency pricing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    10. Montfaucon, Angella Faith & Sato, Kiyotaka & Shrestha, Nagendra & Parsons, Craig, 2021. "Exchange rate pass-through and invoicing currency choice between fixed and floating exchange rate regimes: Evidence from Malawi’s transaction-level data," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 562-577.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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