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Do FX Interventions Lead to Higher FX Debt? Evidence from Firm-Level Data

Author

Listed:
  • Minsuk Kim
  • Rui Mano
  • Mr. Mico Mrkaic

Abstract

Central banks often buy or sell reserves-–-so called FX interventions (FXIs)---to dampen sharp exchange rate movements caused by volatile capital flows. At the same time, these interventions may entail unintended side effects. In this paper, we investigate whether FXIs incentivize firms to take on more unhedged FX debt, thereby increasing medium-term corporate vulnerabilities. Using a novel dataset with close to 5,000 nonfinancial firms across 19 emerging markets covering 2002--2017, we find that the firm-level share of FX debt rises following intensive use of FXIs, particularly for non-exporting firms in shallow financial markets with no FX debt to begin with. The magnitude of this effect is economically significant, with one standard deviation increase in FXI leading to an average 2 percentage points increase in the FX debt share. For reference, the median share of FX debt in the sample is zero.

Suggested Citation

  • Minsuk Kim & Rui Mano & Mr. Mico Mrkaic, 2020. "Do FX Interventions Lead to Higher FX Debt? Evidence from Firm-Level Data," IMF Working Papers 2020/197, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/197
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    Cited by:

    1. Egemen Eren & Semyon Malamud & Haonan Zhou, 2023. "Signaling with debt currency choice," BIS Working Papers 1067, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Magud, Nicolas E. & Pienknagura, Samuel, 2025. "Foreign exchange intervention and capital flow measures under external tail risks," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Forbes, Kristin & Friedrich, Christian & Reinhardt, Dennis, 2023. "Stress relief? Funding structures and resilience to the covid shock," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 47-81.
    4. Vincenzo Quadrini & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2024. "Macro-Financial Implications of the Surging Global Demand (and Supply) of International Reserves," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-038, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    5. Rodnyansky, A. & Timmer, Y. & Yago, N., 2023. "Intervening against the Fed," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2357, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Copestake, Alexander & Estefania-Flores, Julia & Furceri, Davide, 2024. "Digitalization and resilience," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(3).
    7. Mr. Balazs Csonto & Tryggvi Gudmundsson, 2020. "Destabilizing Stability? Exchange Rate Arrangements and Foreign Currency Debt," IMF Working Papers 2020/173, International Monetary Fund.

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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