IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2020-173.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Destabilizing Stability? Exchange Rate Arrangements and Foreign Currency Debt

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Balazs Csonto
  • Tryggvi Gudmundsson

Abstract

Emerging markets (EMs) often respond to shocks by intervening in foreign exchange (FX) markets and thus preventing full exchange rate adjustment. This response can serve to dampen the effect of shocks and increase monetary policy space but may also incentivize economic participants to increase risk taking and take on more FX debt. This paper empirically analyzes the role of exchange rate flexibility in affecting such risk taking, by using rolling correlations and difference-in-difference estimations. The results suggest that a shift towards greater exchange rate flexibility often coincides with a decline in external FX debt. The findings also highlight the importance of using complementary policies to deal with financial stability issues related to the exchange rate, such as FX-specific macroprudential policies and policies aimed at promoting financial development.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Balazs Csonto & Tryggvi Gudmundsson, 2020. "Destabilizing Stability? Exchange Rate Arrangements and Foreign Currency Debt," IMF Working Papers 2020/173, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/173
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=49708
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2010. "Does the currency regime shape unhedged currency exposure?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 760-769, September.
    2. Olivier Blanchard & Gustavo Adler & Irineu de Carvalho Filho, 2015. "Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?," Working Paper Series WP15-18, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    3. Ricardo Bebczuk & Arturo Galindo & Ugo Panizza, 2010. "An Evaluation of the Contractionary Devaluation Hypothesis," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Hadi Salehi Esfahani & Giovanni Facchini & Geoffrey J. D. Hewings (ed.), Economic Development in Latin America, chapter 8, pages 102-117, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Bordo, Michael D. & Meissner, Christopher M. & Stuckler, David, 2010. "Foreign currency debt, financial crises and economic growth: A long-run view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 642-665, June.
    5. Atish R Ghosh & Jonathan D Ostry & Mahvash S Qureshi, 2015. "Exchange Rate Management and Crisis Susceptibility: A Reassessment," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(1), pages 238-276, May.
    6. Matías Tapia & Andrea Tokman, 2004. "Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention under Public Information: The Chilean Case," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 215-256, January.
    7. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    8. Michael D. Bordo, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regime Choice in Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 9654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Zohair Alam & Mr. Adrian Alter & Jesse Eiseman & Mr. Gaston Gelos & Mr. Heedon Kang & Mr. Machiko Narita & Erlend Nier & Naixi Wang, 2019. "Digging Deeper--Evidence on the Effects of Macroprudential Policies from a New Database," IMF Working Papers 2019/066, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Parsley, David C. & Popper, Helen A., 2006. "Exchange rate pegs and foreign exchange exposure in East and South East Asia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 992-1009, October.
    11. Albagli, Elias & Calani, Mauricio & Hadzi-Vaskov, Metodij & Marcel, Mario & Ricci, Luca Antonio, 2020. "Comfort in Floating: Taking Stock of Twenty Years of Freely-Floating Exchange Rate in Chile," CEPR Discussion Papers 14967, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Mr. Suman S Basu & Ms. Emine Boz & Ms. Gita Gopinath & Mr. Francisco Roch & Ms. Filiz D Unsal, 2020. "A Conceptual Model for the Integrated Policy Framework," IMF Working Papers 2020/121, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Herman Kamil, 2008. "Is Central Bank Intervention Effective Under Inflation Targeting Regimes? The Case of Colombia," IMF Working Papers 2008/088, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Pratap, Sangeeta & Lobato, Ignacio & Somuano, Alejandro, 2003. "Debt composition and balance sheet effects of exchange rate volatility in Mexico: a firm level analysis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 450-471, December.
    15. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 1, pages 35-54, November.
    16. Herman Kamil, 2012. "How Do Exchange Rate Regimes Affect Firms' Incentives to Hedge Currency Risk? Micro Evidence for Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2012/069, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Kevin Cowan & José De Gregorio, 2007. "International Borrowing, Capital Controls, and the Exchange Rate: Lessons from Chile," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 241-296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Rui Mano & Ms. Silvia Sgherri, 2020. "One Shock, Many Policy Responses," IMF Working Papers 2020/010, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Martinez, Lorenza & Werner, Alejandro, 2002. "The exchange rate regime and the currency composition of corporate debt: the Mexican experience," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 315-334, December.
    20. Tong, Hui & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2021. "Endogenous corporate leverage response to a safer macro environment: The case of foreign exchange reserve accumulation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    21. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Sebastian Edwards, 2007. "Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number edwa06-1, March.
    23. Adler, Gustavo & Lisack, Noëmie & Mano, Rui C., 2019. "Unveiling the effects of foreign exchange intervention: A panel approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-1.
    24. Ricardo N. Bebczuk & Ugo Panizza & Arturo Galindo, 2006. "An Evaluation of the Contractionary Devaluation Hypothesis," Research Department Publications 4486, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    25. Agustin Benetrix & Deepali Gautam & Luciana Juvenal & Martin Schmitz, 2019. "Cross-Border Currency Exposures," IMF Working Papers 2019/299, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Nazim Belhocine & Ernesto Crivelli & Ms. Nan Geng & Tiberiu Scutaru & Mr. Johannes Wiegand & Zaijin Zhan, 2016. "Taking Stock of Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Europe," IMF Departmental Papers / Policy Papers 2016/012, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Sangeeta Pratap & Alejandro Somuano, "undated". "Debt Composition and Balance Sheet Effect of Exchange and Interest Rate Volatility in Mexico," DCBSLA Series 4, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    28. Michael D. Bordo, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regime Choice in Historical Perspective," IMF Working Papers 2003/160, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Minsuk Kim & Rui Mano & Mr. Mico Mrkaic, 2020. "Do FX Interventions Lead to Higher FX Debt? Evidence from Firm-Level Data," IMF Working Papers 2020/197, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Sebastian Edwards, 2007. "Introduction to "Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences"," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 1-18, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kohn, David & Leibovici, Fernando & Szkup, Michal, 2020. "Financial frictions and export dynamics in large devaluations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    2. Norring, Anni, 2022. "Taming the tides of capital: Review of capital controls and macroprudential policy in emerging economies," BoF Economics Review 1/2022, Bank of Finland.
    3. Gelos, Gaston & Gornicka, Lucyna & Koepke, Robin & Sahay, Ratna & Sgherri, Silvia, 2022. "Capital flows at risk: Taming the ebbs and flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    4. Guzman, Martin & Ocampo, Jose Antonio & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2018. "Real exchange rate policies for economic development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 51-62.
    5. Elías Albagli & Mauricio Calani & Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov & Mario Marcel & Mr. Luca A Ricci, 2020. "Comfort in Floating: Taking Stock of Twenty Years of Freely-Floating Exchange Rate in Chile," IMF Working Papers 2020/100, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Choi, Woo Jin & Taylor, Alan M., 2022. "Precaution versus mercantilism: Reserve accumulation, capital controls, and the real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    7. Garcia-Cicco Javier & Bucacos Elizabeth & Mello Miguel, 2023. "Foreign Exchange Interventions and Foreign Shocks: The case of Uruguay," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4657, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    8. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2018. "Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262037165, December.
    9. José Antonio Ocampo, 2017. "Resetting the International Monetary (Non)System," Books, Red Investigadores de Economía, number 2017-11, May.
    10. Jeffrey Frankel, 2021. "Systematic Managed Floating," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Steven J Davis & Edward S Robinson & Bernard Yeung (ed.), THE ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM Insights for Central Banking, chapter 5, pages 160-221, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Duygu Yolcu Karadam & Erdal Özmen, 2016. "Real Exchange Rates and Growth," ERC Working Papers 1609, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Sep 2016.
    12. Mr. Tobias Adrian & Christopher J. Erceg & Jesper Lindé & Pawel Zabczyk & Ms. Jianping Zhou, 2020. "A Quantitative Model for the Integrated Policy Framework," IMF Working Papers 2020/122, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Chari, Anusha & Dilts-Stedman, Karlye & Forbes, Kristin, 2022. "Spillovers at the extremes: The macroprudential stance and vulnerability to the global financial cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    14. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    15. Harasztosi, Péter & Kátay, Gábor, 2020. "Currency matching by non-financial corporations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    16. Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2010. "Does the currency regime shape unhedged currency exposure?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 760-769, September.
    17. Basak, Gopal K. & Das, Pranab Kumar & Rohit, Allena, 2017. "Capital inflow-terms of trade ‘nexus’: Does it lead to financial crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 18-29.
    18. Cavallo, Eduardo & Powell, Andrew & Pedemonte, Mathieu & Tavella, Pilar, 2015. "A new taxonomy of Sudden Stops: Which Sudden Stops should countries be most concerned about?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 47-70.
    19. José María Serena & Ricardo Sousa, 2017. "Does exchange rate depreciation have contractionary effects on firm-level investment?," BIS Working Papers 624, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Ye, Min & Hutson, Elaine & Muckley, Cal, 2014. "Exchange rate regimes and foreign exchange exposure: The case of emerging market firms," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 156-182.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/173. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.