An Evaluation of the Contractionary Devaluation Hypothesis
Recent empirical and theoretical literature on the impact of real exchange rate devaluations on economic performance questions the traditional expansionary effect generated within standard Mundell-Fleming models. Contractionary devaluations may arise when firms face maturity or currency mismatches that, when faced with real exchange rate depreciations, lead to balance-sheet effects that erode firms` wealth and lead to an output contraction. While some authors show that the standard Mundell-Fleming result may hold even in the presence of currency mismatches, others point out that, if the balance sheet effect is large enough, devaluations can be contractionary. Using a large panel of 57 countries across the world and various newly constructed measures of dollarization, we test whether the balance sheet effect hypothesis has been relevant during the past decades in explaining economic downturns. Additionally, we explore the channels through which devaluations can be contractionary; in particular, we explore whether investment and consumption decisions are negatively affected by exchange rate devaluations under currency mismatches.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2006|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 1300 New York Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20577|
Web page: http://www.iadb.org/res
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Benavente, Jose Miguel & Johnson, Christian A. & Morande, Felipe G., 2003. "Debt composition and balance sheet effects of exchange rate depreciations: a firm-level analysis for Chile," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 397-416, December.
- Bonomo, Marco & Martins, Betina & Pinto, Rodrigo, 2003.
"Debt composition and exchange rate balance sheet effect in Brazil: a firm level analysis,"
Emerging Markets Review,
Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 368-396, December.
- Martins, Betina Guimarães Dodsworth & Pinto, Rodrigo Ribeiro Antunes & Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar, 2004. "Debt composition and exchange rate balance sheet effects in Brazil: A firm level analysis," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 535, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
- Aguiar, Mark, 2005. "Investment, devaluation, and foreign currency exposure: The case of Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 95-113, October.
- Calvo, Guillermo A. & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Loo-Kung, Rudy, 2006. "Relative price volatility under Sudden Stops: The relevance of balance sheet effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 231-254, June.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Rudy Loo-Kung, 2005. "Relative Price Volatility Under Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance Sheet Effects," NBER Working Papers 11492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
- Felipe Larrain & Jeffrey Sachs, 1986. "Contractionary Devaluation, and Dynamic Adjustment of Exports and Wages," NBER Working Papers 2078, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Galindo, Arturo & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Montero, Jose Manuel, 2007. "Real exchange rates, dollarization and industrial employment in Latin America," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 284-298, December.
- Arturo Galindo & Alejandro Izquierdo & José Manuel Montero, 2006. "Real Exchange Rates, Dollarization and Industrial Employment in Latin America," Research Department Publications 4478, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Arturo Galindo & Alejandro Izquierdo & José Manuel Montero, 2006. "Real Exchange Rates, Dollarization and Industrial Employment in Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1943, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Arturo Galindo & Alejandro Izquierdo & José M. Montero, 2006. "Real exchange rates, dollarization and industrial employment in Latin America," Working Papers 0601, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
- Luis Felipe Cespedes & Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2000. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 7840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Financial dollarization: evaluating the consequences," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 61-118, 01.
- Eduardo Levy-Yeyati, 2004. "FINANCIAL DOLLARIZATION: Evaluating the consequences," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 184, Econometric Society.
- Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2005. "Financial Dollarisation: Evaluating The Consequences," Business School Working Papers findollarisation, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
- Galiani, Sebastian & Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Schargrodsky, Ernesto, 2003. "Financial dollarization and debt deflation under a currency board," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 340-367, December.
- Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Ernesto Schargrodsky & Sebastián Galiani, 2003. "Finantial Dollarization and Debt Deflation under a Currency Board," Business School Working Papers tres, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
- Sebastian Galiani & Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Ernesto Schargrodsky, 2003. "Financial Dollarization and Debt Deflation under a Currency Board," Working Papers 64, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Nov 2003.
- J. Saul Lizondo & Peter J. Montiel, 1989. "Contractionary Devaluation in Developing Countries: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(1), pages 182-227, March.
- Baer, Werner & Maloney, William, 1997. "Neoliberalism and income distribution in Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 311-327, March.
- Galindo, Arturo & Panizza, Ugo & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 2003. "Debt composition and balance sheet effects of currency depreciation: a summary of the micro evidence," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 330-339, December.
- Echeverry, Juan Carlos & Fergusson, Leopoldo & Steiner, Roberto & Aguilar, Camila, 2003. "'Dollar' debt in Colombian firms: are sinners punished during devaluations?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 417-449, December.
- Martinez, Lorenza & Werner, Alejandro, 2002. "The exchange rate regime and the currency composition of corporate debt: the Mexican experience," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 315-334, December. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)