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Balance sheets after the EMU: an assessment of the redenomination risk

Author

Listed:
  • Cédric Durand

    (UP13 - Université Paris 13)

  • Sébastien Villemot

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CEPREMAP - Centre pour la recherche économique et ses applications - ECO ENS-PSL - Département d'économie de l'ENS-PSL - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres)

Abstract

The probability of a partial or complete break-up of the euro has risen over the last years. Such an event could create a balance sheet problem for economic agents, if the redenomination process introduced significant currency mismatches between the asset and liability sides. We propose a new assessment of this redenomination risk, by country and by main institutional sector, for two scenarios: a single country exit and a complete break-up. Our main conclusion is that, even though the problem has to be taken seriously, its order of magnitude should not be exaggerated. Only a few sectors are at significant risk: public debts of Greece and Portugal, financial sectors of Greece, Ireland and Luxembourg. In particular, the balance sheet exposure of the non-financial private sector to the redenomination risk appears to be limited.

Suggested Citation

  • Cédric Durand & Sébastien Villemot, 2020. "Balance sheets after the EMU: an assessment of the redenomination risk," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03409079, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03409079
    DOI: 10.1093/ser/mwy004
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03409079v1
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Pfister & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2020. "Unconventional monetary policies: A stock-taking exercise," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 130(2), pages 137-169.
    2. Alberto Bagnai & Brigitte Granville & Christian Alexander Mongeau Ospina, 2017. "Withdrawal of Italy from the Eurozone: stochastic simulations of a structural macroeconometric model," a/ Working Papers Series 1702, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
    3. repec:ces:ifodic:v:16:y:2018:i:3:p:50000000003758 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Costas Lapavitsas, 2018. "The Redenomination Risk of Eurozone Exit for Greece," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 16(03), pages 31-34, November.
    5. Lindner, Vincent & Eckert, Sandra & Nölke, Andreas, 2022. "Political science research on the reasons for the (non) adoption and (non) implementation of EMU reform proposals: The state of the art," SAFE Working Paper Series 339, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    6. Bagnai, Alberto & Granville, Brigitte & Mongeau Ospina, Christian A., 2017. "Withdrawal of Italy from the euro area: Stochastic simulations of a structural macroeconometric model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 524-538.
    7. Sergio Cesaratto, 2017. "The Nature of the Eurocrisis. A Reply to Febrero, Uxò and Bermejo," a/ Working Papers Series 1703, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
    8. Sergio Cesaratto, 2017. "Beyond the traditional monetary circuit: endogenous money, finance and the theory of long-period effective demand," Department of Economics University of Siena 757, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    9. Murau, Steffen & Giordano, Matteo, 2022. "European Monetary Unification through Novation. The Political Economy of the TARGET System," SocArXiv k3nbh_v1, Center for Open Science.

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    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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