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Küresel finansal riskler karşısında Türkiye’de reel sektörün finansal yapısı ve borç dolarizasyonu

  • Erdal ÖZMEN

    (Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi)

  • Cihan YALÇIN

    (T.C. Merkez Bankası)

Bu çalışmada, TCMB Sektör Bilançoları ve TCMB Risk Merkezi şirket düzeyi verileri kullanılarak, Türkiye’de reel sektörün, temelde küresel dengesizliklerin intibakıyla uluslararası faiz oranlarındaki artış veya özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelere olan sermaye girişlerindeki ani duruş veya tersine dönüş biçiminde gerçekleşebilecek dışsal küresel risklere karşı finansal kırılganlıkları tartışılmaktadır. Dışsal şoklar sonucundaki olası reel kur veya faiz artışlarının etkisinin boyutunda, ekonomideki temel sektörlerin finansal durumları, borç yapıları ve aralarındaki finansal kırılganlık kanalları temel öneme sahiptir. Reel kur artışları, yüksek düzeyde borç dolarizasyonu gibi finansal kırılganlıkların varlığında, ekonomiyi daraltıcı olabilecektir. Çalışma, borçluluk oranı ve faiz riski gibi değişkenlerde 2001 krizi sonrasında olumlu gelişmelere işaret etmektedir. Ancak, borç dolarizasyonu ve kısa vadeli borçlanma yapısı, son yıllarda gözlenen göreli iyileşmeye rağmen, Türkiye’de reel sektör şirketlerinin dışsal finansal şoklara karşı temel içsel kırılganlık kaynakları olarak değerlendirilmektedir. Özellikle küçük ölçekli veya düşük ihracat payına sahip şirketlerin kriz sonrasında borç dolarizasyonu karşısında daha temkinli oldukları gözlemlenmektedir. Borç dolarizasyonunun şirket ölçek büyüklüğü ve ihracat paylarıyla olan ve son dönemde güçlenme eğilimi gösteren positif ilişkisi, finansal piyasalara erişim ve borç-gelir para cinsi bileşimi tutarlılığı çerçevesinde, risk sınırlayıcı olgular olarak değerlendirilmektedir.

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Article provided by Bilgesel Yayincilik in its journal İktisat İşletme ve Finans.

Volume (Year): 22 (2007)
Issue (Month): 258 ()
Pages: 5-39

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Handle: RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:22:y:2007:i:258:p:5-39
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