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Contractionary Devaluation, and Dynamic Adjustment of Exports and Wages

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  • Felipe Larrain
  • Jeffrey Sachs

Abstract

Recent macroeconomic models of developing countries have emphasized the possibility of contactionary devaluations, stressing that domestic aggregate demand is likely to be reduced by the devaluations while aggregate supply may respond only slowly to the change in relative prices brought about by the devaluation. These results have been obtained in static models. In this paper we add wage and export-sector dynamics to the models of contractionary devaluation, and show that the effects which produce contractionary devaluations in the short term can produce limit cycles in the long run. The economy never returns to long-run equilibrium following a devaluation, but rather moves with fixed periodicity through successive phases of boom and bust.

Suggested Citation

  • Felipe Larrain & Jeffrey Sachs, 1986. "Contractionary Devaluation, and Dynamic Adjustment of Exports and Wages," NBER Working Papers 2078, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2078
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    1. Maurice Obstfeld, 1982. "Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-270.
    2. Carlos F. Diaz Alejandro, 1963. "A Note on the Impact of Devaluation and the Redistributive Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 577-577.
    3. Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978. "Contractionary effects of devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August.
    4. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1975. "A portfolio balance model of the open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-20, January.
    5. Hanson, James A., 1983. "Contractionary devaluation, substitution in production and consumption, and the role of the labor market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 179-189, February.
    6. Dornbusch, Rudi, 1996. "The Effectiveness of Exchange-Rate Changes," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 26-38, Autumn.
    7. Beckmann, Martin J & Ryder, Harl E, Jr, 1969. "Simultaneous Price and Quantity Adjustment in a Single Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 470-484, July.
    8. Benassy, Jean-Pascal, 1984. "A non-Walrasian model of the business cycle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 77-89, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guangjun Qu, 2017. "Do Real Depreciations Reduce the Income Gap between the Rich and the Poor?," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(3), pages 266-274, March.
    2. Ricardo N. Bebczuk & Ugo Panizza & Arturo Galindo, 2006. "An Evaluation of the Contractionary Devaluation Hypothesis," Research Department Publications 4486, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    3. Sartorello Spinola, Danilo, 2018. "Instability constraints and development traps: An empirical analysis of growth cycles and economic volatility in Latin America," MERIT Working Papers 002, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    4. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia & Aliona Cebotari & Kevin Greenidge & Geoffrey N. Keim, 2015. "External Devaluations; Are Small States Different?," IMF Working Papers 15/240, International Monetary Fund.

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