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Contractionary Devaluation, and Dynamic Adjustment of Exports and Wages

  • Felipe Larrain
  • Jeffrey Sachs
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    Recent macroeconomic models of developing countries have emphasized the possibility of contactionary devaluations, stressing that domestic aggregate demand is likely to be reduced by the devaluations while aggregate supply may respond only slowly to the change in relative prices brought about by the devaluation. These results have been obtained in static models. In this paper we add wage and export-sector dynamics to the models of contractionary devaluation, and show that the effects which produce contractionary devaluations in the short term can produce limit cycles in the long run. The economy never returns to long-run equilibrium following a devaluation, but rather moves with fixed periodicity through successive phases of boom and bust.

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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w2078.pdf
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    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2078.

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    Date of creation: Nov 1986
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    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2078
    Note: ITI IFM
    Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
    Phone: 617-868-3900
    Web page: http://www.nber.org
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    1. P. Krugman & L. Taylor, 1976. "Contractionary Effects of Devaluations," Working papers 191, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    2. Carlos F. Diaz Alejandro, 1963. "A Note on the Impact of Devaluation and the Redistributive Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 577.
    3. Dornbusch, Rudi, 1996. "The Effectiveness of Exchange-Rate Changes," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 26-38, Autumn.
    4. Beckmann, Martin J & Ryder, Harl E, Jr, 1969. "Simultaneous Price and Quantity Adjustment in a Single Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 470-84, July.
    5. Benassy, Jean-Pascal, 1984. "A non-Walrasian model of the business cycle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 77-89, March.
    6. Hanson, James A., 1983. "Contractionary devaluation, substitution in production and consumption, and the role of the labor market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 179-189, February.
    7. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1982. "Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-70, May.
    8. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1975. "A portfolio balance model of the open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-20, January.
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