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A Model of the International Monetary System

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  • Emmanuel Farhi
  • Matteo Maggiori

Abstract

We propose a simple model of the international monetary system. We study the world supply and demand for reserve assets denominated in different currencies under a variety of scenarios: a hegemon versus a multipolar world; abundant versus scarce reserve assets; and a gold exchange standard versus a floating rate system. We rationalize the Triffin dilemma, which posits the fundamental instability of the system, as well as the common prediction regarding the natural and beneficial emergence of a multipolar world, the Nurkse warning that a multipolar world is more unstable than a hegemon world, and the Keynesian argument that a scarcity of reserve assets under a gold standard or at the zero lower bound is recessionary. Our analysis is both positive and normative.

Suggested Citation

  • Emmanuel Farhi & Matteo Maggiori, 2018. "A Model of the International Monetary System," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 133(1), pages 295-355.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:133:y:2018:i:1:p:295-355.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/qje/qjx031
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    Cited by:

    1. Adrian, Tobias & Xie, Peichu, 2020. "The Non-U.S. Bank Demand for U.S. Dollar Assets," CEPR Discussion Papers 14437, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. MĂRGINEAN Silvia Cristina & ORĂȘTEAN Ramona, 2020. "The Challenges Of Reforming The International Monetary System In The Post Covid-19 World," Studies in Busine and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 15(3), pages 61-73, December.
    3. Matteo Maggiori & Brent Neiman & Jesse Schreger, 2019. "The Rise of the Dollar and Fall of the Euro as International Currencies," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 521-526, May.
    4. Martijn Boermans & John Burger, 2020. "Global and local currency effects on euro area investment in emerging market bonds," DNB Working Papers 676, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    5. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Dedola, Luca & Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek & Stracca, Livio & Strasser, Georg, 2020. "Monetary policy and its transmission in a globalised world," Working Paper Series 2407, European Central Bank.
    6. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2016. "Real Interest Rates, Imbalances and the Curse of Regional Safe Asset Providers at the Zero Lower Bound," CEPR Discussion Papers 11503, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Kumhof, Michael, 2018. "On the theory of international currency portfolios," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 376-396.
    8. Ly Dai Hung & Hai Anh Bui Thi & Thanh Vo Tri, 2021. "International Debts Flows," Working Papers hal-03129122, HAL.
    9. Ly Dai Hung, 2020. "International Public Capital Flows," Working Papers hal-03090656, HAL.
    10. Stangebye, Zachary R., 2020. "Beliefs and long-maturity sovereign debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    11. Michael Bordo & Eric Monnet & Alain Naef, 2017. "The Gold Pool (1961-1968) and the Fall of the Bretton Woods System. Lessons for Central Bank Cooperation," NBER Working Papers 24016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Robert N. McCauley, 2020. "The Global Domain of the Dollar: Eight Questions," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 48(4), pages 421-429, December.
    13. Mateane, Lebogang, 2020. "Risk preferences, global market conditions and foreign debt: Is there any role for the currency composition of FX reserves?," EconStor Preprints 227484, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    14. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey & Maxime Sauzet, 2019. "The International Monetary and Financial System," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 859-893, August.
    15. Mark Gertler & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Andrea Prestipino, 2020. "Credit Booms, Financial Crises, and Macroprudential Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 8-33, August.
    16. Rogoff, Kenneth, 2020. "Falling real interest rates, rising debt: A free lunch?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 778-790.
    17. Ly Dai Hung, 2020. "A Macro-Finance Model of Government Bonds Yields in Vietnam," Working Papers hal-03133807, HAL.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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