IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-03954545.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Soft or strong: the art of monetary tightening

Author

Listed:
  • Christophe Blot

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Jérôme Creel

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

The rise of inflation has sparked tightening measures by the ECB. The paper discusses the causes of this rise and the factors that impinge on the effectiveness of ECB policy at curbing inflation. Drawing on own assessment of the respective trends in these factors, we recommend a careful approach to monetary policy. This paper was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 26 September 2022.

Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel, 2023. "Soft or strong: the art of monetary tightening," Working Papers hal-03954545, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03954545
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03954545
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03954545/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Riccardo Degasperi & Seokki Simon Hong & Giovanni Ricco, 2020. "The Global Transmission of U.S Monetary Policy," ERSA Working Paper Series, Economic Research Southern Africa, vol. 0.
    2. Belai Abbai & Ozge Akinci & Gianluca Benigno & Julian di Giovanni & Jan J. J. Groen & Ruth Cesar Heymann & Lawrence Lin & Adam I. Noble, 2022. "The Global Supply Side of Inflationary Pressures," Liberty Street Economics 20220128, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Muh Yunus, S.Sos. M.Kes & , Rosdiana, 2022. "Sistem Penjaminan Mutu Internal (Spmi)," OSF Preprints vkmwr, Center for Open Science.
    4. Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Kara, A. Hakan & Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin & Lee, Sang Seok, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and exchange rate behavior," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    5. Ricco, Giovanni & Degasperi, Riccardo & Hong, Simon, 2020. "The Global Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 14533, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Eva Ortega & Chiara Osbat, 2020. "Exchange rate pass-through in the euro area and EU countries," Occasional Papers 2016, Banco de España.
    7. James C. R. Grove & Lindsay A. Gray & Naymalis Santa Medina & Nilla Sivakumar & Jamie S. Ahn & Timothy V. Corpuz & Joshua D. Berke & Anatol C. Kreitzer & Zachary A. Knight, 2022. "Dopamine subsystems that track internal states," Nature, Nature, vol. 608(7922), pages 374-380, August.
    8. Marco Di Maggio & Amir Kermani & Kaveh Majlesi, 2020. "Stock Market Returns and Consumption," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 3175-3219, December.
    9. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Kumar, Saten & Pedemonte, Mathieu, 2020. "Inflation expectations as a policy tool?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    10. Unknown, 2020. "Journal of Airport Management September Issue," Journal of Airport Management, Henry Stewart Publications, vol. 14(4), pages 433-434, September.
    11. Michael Ehrmann, 2015. "Targeting Inflation from Below: How Do Inflation Expectations Behave?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 213-249, September.
    12. Erzo F.P. Luttmer, 2022. "Can Fiscal Externalities Be Internalized?," NBER Working Papers 30213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Leogrande, Angelo & Magaletti, Nicola & Cosoli, Gabriele & Giardinelli, Vito O. M. & Massaro, Alessandro, 2022. "The Determinants of Internet User Skills in Europe," MPRA Paper 113123, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Santiago Camara, 2021. "Spillovers of US Interest Rates: Monetary Policy & Information Effects," Papers 2111.08631, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    2. Jarociński, Marek, 2022. "Central bank information effects and transatlantic spillovers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Kodongo, Odongo, 2024. "Bank performance and real sector productivity in East Africa," KBA Centre for Research on Financial Markets and Policy Working Paper Series 77, Kenya Bankers Association (KBA).
    4. Santiago Camara, 2021. "US Spillovers of US Monetary Policy: Information effects & Financial Flows," Papers 2108.01026, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    5. Michael Pedersen, 2020. "Surveying the survey: What can we learn about the effects of monetary policy on inflation expectations?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 889, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2021_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek, 2025. "Global spillovers from multi-dimensional US monetary policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    8. Alisdair McKay & Christian K. Wolf, 2023. "What Can Time‐Series Regressions Tell Us About Policy Counterfactuals?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(5), pages 1695-1725, September.
    9. Rujin, Svetlana, 2024. "Labor market institutions and technology-induced labor adjustment along the extensive and intensive margins," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    10. Tobias Adrian & Gaston Gelos & Nora Lamersdorf & Emanuel Moench, 2024. "The asymmetric and persistent effects of Fed policy on global bond yields," BIS Working Papers 1195, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Ordu-Akkaya, Beyza Mina & Özyıldırım, Süheyla, 2025. "Commodity dependence: Providing information on emerging market CDS spreads when economic indicators are absent," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    12. Breitenlechner, Max & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2022. "What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 45-60.
    13. Alain Kabundi & Tumisang Loate & Nicola Viegi, 2020. "Spillovers of the Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy from the US to South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(4), pages 435-471, December.
    14. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Sokol, Andrej, 2022. "Financial shocks, credit spreads, and the international credit channel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    15. Ewa Stanisławska & Maritta Paloviita, 2021. "Medium- vs. short-term consumer inflation expectations: evidence from a new euro area survey," NBP Working Papers 338, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    16. M. Ayhan Kose & Hideaki Matsuoka & Ugo Panizza & Dana Vorisek, 2019. "Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1904, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    17. Christoph Lauper & Giacomo Mangiante, 2021. "Monetary policy shocks and inflation inequality," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 21.02a, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    18. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Xu, Nancy R., 2023. "Risk, monetary policy and asset prices in a global world," Working Paper Series 2879, European Central Bank.
    19. Ider, Gökhan & Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Kurcz, Frederik & Schumann, Ben, 2023. "The Energy-Price Channel of (European) Monetary Policy," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277710, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2024. "Spillover effects of US monetary policy on emerging markets amidst uncertainty," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    21. Georgios Georgiadis & Gernot J. Müller & Ben Schumann, 2023. "Dollar Trinity and the Global Financial Cycle," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2058, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03954545. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.