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Stock Returns, Term Structure, Inflation, And Real Activity: An International Perspective

Listed author(s):
  • Canova, Fabio
  • Nicol , Gianni De

This paper analyses the empirical interdependence of asset returns, real activity and inflation from a multicountry and international point of view. We find that nominal stock returns are significantly related to inflation only in the United States, that the US term structure of interest rates predicts both domestic and foreign inflation rates while foreign term structures do not have this predictive power and that innovations in inflation and exchange rates induce insignificant responses of real and financial variables. An interpretation of the dynamics and some policy implications of the results are provided.

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Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Macroeconomic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 4 (2000)
Issue (Month): 03 (September)
Pages: 343-372

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Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:4:y:2000:i:03:p:343-372_01
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  1. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
  2. Geske, Robert & Roll, Richard, 1983. " The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-33, March.
  3. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-775, August.
  4. Fama, Eugene F., 1990. "Term-structure forecasts of interest rates, inflation and real returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 59-76, January.
  5. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
  6. Gordon, David B & Leeper, Eric M, 1994. "The Dynamic Impacts of Monetary Policy: An Exercise in Tentative Identification," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1228-1247, December.
  7. Canova, Fabio & De Nicolo', Gianni, 1995. "Stock returns and real activity: A structural approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 981-1015, May.
  8. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1990. "What does the term structure tell us about future inflation?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 77-95, January.
  9. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
  10. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. " Characterizing Predictable Components in Excess Returns on Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 467-509, June.
  11. James, Christopher & Koreisha, Sergio & Partch, Megan, 1985. " A VARMA Analysis of the Causal Relations among Stock Returns, Real Output, and Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(5), pages 1375-1384, December.
  12. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. " Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
  13. Harvey, Campbell R., 1988. "The real term structure and consumption growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 305-333, December.
  14. Lee, Bong-Soo, 1992. " Causal Relations among Stock Returns, Interest Rates, Real Activity, and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1591-1603, September.
  15. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
  16. John H. Cochrane & Lars Peter Hansen, 1992. "Asset Pricing Explorations for Macroeconomics," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992, Volume 7, pages 115-182 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Vallés Liberal, Javier & Viñals, José, 1996. "Do Exchange Rates Move to Address International Macroeconomic Imbalances?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1498, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Plosser, Charles I. & Geert Rouwenhorst, K., 1994. "International term structures and real economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 133-155, February.
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