IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-24-00192.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does fear of floating shape monetary policy and does it matter?

Author

Listed:
  • Asif Ahmad

    (University of York)

  • Richard Mcmanus

    (Canterbury Christ Church University)

  • Gulcin Ozkan

    (King's College London)

Abstract

Despite overwhelming evidence on the enduring preference for limiting exchange rate variability, our understanding of how such fear of floating (FoF) impacts policy and macroeconomic outcomes is far from complete. Using data from 166 countries over 1950-2019, we show that (i) FoF has been prevalent throughout our sample period; (ii) FoF is a major driver of monetary procyclicality; and (iii) both FoF and procyclical monetary policy result in adverse outcomes in the form of greater volatility in output and inflation and lower output growth. As such, our findings point to the importance of establishing frameworks to build up resilience against exchange rate variability as a key step in establishing countercyclicality and boosting short-term stability and long-term growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Asif Ahmad & Richard Mcmanus & Gulcin Ozkan, 2024. "Does fear of floating shape monetary policy and does it matter?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 44(3), pages 1055-1095.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-24-00192
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2024/Volume44/EB-24-V44-I3-P83.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Muhammad Ali Choudhary & Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Sajawal Khan & Muhammad Rehman, 2012. "Procyclical Monetary Policy and Governance," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 8, pages 33-43.
    2. Lynge Nielsen, 2011. "Classifications of Countries Basedon their Level of Development: How it is Done and How it Could Be Done," IMF Working Papers 2011/031, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Yossi Yakhin, 2008. "Financial Integration And Cyclicality Of Monetary Policy In Small Open Economies," Working Papers 0811, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    4. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2001. "Why do countries float the way they float?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 387-414, December.
    5. Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B & Neyapti, Bilin, 1992. "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 6(3), pages 353-398, September.
    6. Ilzetzki, Ethan & Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2021. "Rethinking Exchange Rate Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 16722, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    8. Ghosh, Amit, 2013. "Exchange rate pass through, macro fundamentals and regime choice in Latin America," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 163-171.
    9. Asif Ahmad & Richard McManus & F. Gulcin Ozkan, 2021. "Fiscal space and the procyclicality of fiscal policy: The case for making hay while the sun shines," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(4), pages 1687-1701, October.
    10. Carlos A. Vegh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2013. "Overcoming the Fear of Free Falling: Monetary Policy Graduation in Emerging Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Douglas D Evanoff & Cornelia Holthausen & George G Kaufman & Manfred Kremer (ed.), The Role of Central Banks in Financial Stability How Has It Changed?, chapter 6, pages 105-129, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Javier Bianchi & Louphou Coulibaly, 2023. "A Theory of Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 30897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guisinger, Alexandra & Singer, David Andrew, 2010. "Exchange Rate Proclamations and Inflation-Fighting Credibility," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(2), pages 313-337, April.
    2. Eduardo Wiesner, 2008. "The Political Economy of Macroeconomic Policy Reform in Latin America," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12913, March.
    3. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2010. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4215-4281, Elsevier.
    4. Tamgac, Unay, 2013. "Duration of fixed exchange rate regimes in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 439-467.
    5. Najia Maraoui & Thouraya Hadj Amor & Islem Khefacha & Christophe Rault, 2021. "How Economic, Political, and Institutional Factors Influence the Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes? New Evidence from Selected Countries of the MENA Region," Working Papers 1498, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Oct 2021.
    6. Itchoko Motande Mondjeli Mwa Ndjokou and Christophe Martial Mbassi, 2018. "Does Financial Development Explain the Cyclicality of Monetary Policy in Sub-saharan Africa?," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 71-84, December.
    7. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 2016. "Globalization in the Periphery: Monetary Policy: What is Gained, What is Lost," Working Papers 2016-26, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    8. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Augusto de la Torre & Samuel Pienknagura, "undated". "Latin America’s Deceleration and the Exchange Rate Buffer : LAC Semiannual Report, October 2013," World Bank Publications - Reports 16107, The World Bank Group.
    9. Gabriela Contreras & Francisco Pinto, 2016. "Traspaso de tipo de cambio nominal a inflación desagregada en Chile," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 19(2), pages 154-170, August.
    10. Mistak, Jakub & Ozkan, F. Gulcin, 2024. "Asymmetric monetary policy spillovers: the role of supply chains, credit networks and fear of floating," Working Paper Series 2995, European Central Bank.
    11. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    12. Akosah, Nana Kwame & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Schaling, Eric, 2020. "Testing for asymmetry in monetary policy rule for small-open developing economies: Multiscale Bayesian quantile evidence from Ghana," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    13. Taliercio, Robert Jr., 2004. "Administrative Reform as Credible Commitment: The Impact of Autonomy on Revenue Authority Performance in Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 213-232, February.
    14. Marfatia, Hardik A., 2017. "A fresh look at integration of risks in the international stock markets: A wavelet approach," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 33-49.
    15. Herman Bennett & Norman Loayza, 2002. "Policy Biases when the Monetary and Fiscal Authorities Have Different Objectives," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 11, pages 299-330, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. Evrim Imer-Ertunga, 2011. "Global financing conditions and sovereign debt yields of emerging market countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 207-215.
    17. Sensoy, Ahmet & Sobaci, Cihat, 2014. "Effects of volatility shocks on the dynamic linkages between exchange rate, interest rate and the stock market: The case of Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 448-457.
    18. Radosław Kurach, 2013. "Does Beta Explain Global Equity Market Volatility – Some Empirical Evidence," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 7(2), June.
    19. Sobel, Andrew C., 2002. "State institutions, risk, and lending in global capital markets," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(6), pages 725-752, December.
    20. Flavin, Thomas J. & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Unalmis, Deren, 2008. "On the stability of domestic financial market linkages in the presence of time-varying volatility," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 280-301, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; exchange rates; inflation; growth; procyclicality; fear of floating.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-24-00192. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.