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Bifurcation of Macroeconometric Models and Robustness of Dynamical Inferences

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  • Barnett, William A.
  • Chen, Guo

Abstract

In systems theory, it is well known that the parameter spaces of dynamical systems are stratified into bifurcation regions, with each supporting a different dynamical solution regime. Some can be stable, with different characteristics, such as monotonic stability, periodic damped stability, or multiperiodic damped stability, and some can be unstable, with different characteristics, such as periodic, multiperiodic, or chaotic unstable dynamics. But in general the existence of bifurcation boundaries is normal and should be expected from most dynamical systems, whether linear or nonlinear. Bifurcation boundaries in parameter space are not evidence of model defect. While existence of such bifurcation boundaries is well known in economic theory, econometricians using macroeconometric models rarely take bifurcation into consideration, when producing policy simulations from macroeconometrics models. Such models are routinely simulated only at the point estimates of the models' parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Barnett, William A. & Chen, Guo, 2015. "Bifurcation of Macroeconometric Models and Robustness of Dynamical Inferences," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 8(1-2), pages 1-144, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:now:fnteco:0800000026
    DOI: 10.1561/0800000026
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    2. Barnett, William A. & Hu, Mingzhi & Wang, Xue, 2019. "Does the utilization of information communication technology promote entrepreneurship: Evidence from rural China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 12-21.
    3. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2019. "Ramsey Optimal Policy in the New-Keynesian Model with Public Debt," PSE Working Papers halshs-02278781, HAL.
    4. Chatelain, Jean-Bernard & Ralf, Kirsten, 2020. "Hopf Bifurcation from New-Keynesian Taylor Rule to Ramsey Optimal Policy," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    5. Barnett William A. & Jawadi Fredj & Ftiti Zied, 2020. "Causal relationships between inflation and inflation uncertainty," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(5), pages 1-26, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bifurcation; Dynamical systems; Systems theory; Hopf; Robustness; Dynamical inference; Policy simulations; Econometrics; Macroeconomics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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