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Hopf bifurcation in the Clarida, Gali, and Gertler model

  • Barnett, William A.
  • Eryilmaz, Unal

We explore bifurcation phenomena in the open-economy New Keynesian model developed by Clarida, Gali and Gertler (2002). We find that the open economy framework can bring about more complex dynamics, along with a wider variety of qualitative behaviors and policy responses. Introducing parameters related to the open economy structure affects the values of bifurcation parameters and changes the location of bifurcation boundaries. As a result, the stratification of the confidence region, as previously seen in closed-economy New Keynesian models, remains an important research and policy risk to be considered in the context of the open-economy New Keynesian functional structures. In fact, econometrics and optimal policy design become more complex within an open economy. Dynamical inferences need to be qualified by the risk of bifurcation boundaries crossing the confidence regions. Without adequate prior econometric research, policy design needs to take into consideration that a change in monetary policy can produce an unanticipated bifurcation.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 40668.

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Date of creation: 13 Aug 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:40668
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  1. William Barnett & Evgeniya Aleksandrovna Duzhak, 2006. "Non-Robust Dynamic Inferences from Macroeconometric Models: Bifurcation Stratification of Confidence Regions," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200608, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
  2. Banerjee, Sanjibani & Barnett, William A. & Duzhak, Evgeniya A. & Gopalan, Ramu, 2011. "Bifurcation Analysis of Zellner's Marshallain Macroeconomic Model," MPRA Paper 30059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Barnett, William A. & He, Yijun, 2002. "Stabilization Policy As Bifurcation Selection: Would Stabilization Policy Work If The Economy Really Were Unstable?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(05), pages 713-747, November.
  4. Yijun He & William Barnett, 2004. "Singularity Bifurcations," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200412, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2004.
  5. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1985. "On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 995-1045, September.
  6. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims, 1994. "Toward a Modern Macroeconomic Model Usable for Policy Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 81-140 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 2002. "A simple framework for international monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 879-904, July.
  8. Jordi Gali & Tommaso Monacelli, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 438, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 15 Nov 1999.
  9. Jordi Gal� & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
  10. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy in Open versus Closed Economies: An Integrated Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 248-252, May.
  11. William Barnett & Evgeniya Duzhak, 2010. "Empirical assessment of bifurcation regions within New Keynesian models," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 99-128, October.
  12. William Barnett & Unal Eryilmaz, 2012. "An Analytical and Numerical Search for Bifurcations in Open Economy New Keynesian Models," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201210, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2012.
  13. Carl E. Walsh, 2003. "Monetary Theory and Policy, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232316, June.
  14. Barnett William A. & He Yijun, 1999. "Stability Analysis of Continuous-Time Macroeconometric Systems," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 1-22, January.
  15. Senay, Ozge & Sutherland, Alan, 2004. "The Expenditure Switching Effect and the Choice Between Fixed and Floating Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4300, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Wei Dong, 2007. "Expenditure-Switching Effect and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime," Working Papers 07-54, Bank of Canada.
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