IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedkrw/98-08.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Credit spreads and interest rates : a cointegration approach

Author

Listed:
  • Charles S. Morris
  • Robert Neal
  • Doug Rolph

Abstract

This paper uses cointegration to model the time-series of corporate and government bond rates. We show that corporate rates are cointegrated with government rates and the relation between credit spreads and Treasury rates depends on the time horizon. In the short-run, an increase in Treasury rates causes credit spreads to narrow. This effect is reversed over the long-run and higher rates cause spreads to widen. The positive long-run relation between spreads and Treasuries is inconsistent with prominent models for pricing corporate bonds, analyzing capital structure, and measuring the interest rate sensitivity of corporate bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles S. Morris & Robert Neal & Doug Rolph, 1998. "Credit spreads and interest rates : a cointegration approach," Research Working Paper 98-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:98-08
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/reswkpap/PDF/RWP98-08.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gregory R. Duffee, 1996. "Treasury yields and corporate bond yield spreads: an empirical analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Rose, Andrew Kenan, 1988. " Is the Real Interest Rate Stable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1095-1112, December.
    4. Gonzalo, Jesus & Lee, Tae-Hwy, 1998. "Pitfalls in testing for long run relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 129-154, June.
    5. Leland, Hayne E & Toft, Klaus Bjerre, 1996. " Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 987-1019, July.
    6. Toru Konishi & Valerie A. Ramey & Clive W.J. Granger, 1993. "Stochastic Trends and Short-Run Relationships Between Financial Variables and Real Activity," NBER Working Papers 4275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    8. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December.
    9. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    10. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    11. Robert A. Jarrow & David Lando & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 18, pages 411-453 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Granger, C W J & Swanson, Norman, 1996. "Future Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 537-553, August.
    13. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    14. Chance, Don M, 1990. " Default Risk and the Duration of Zero Coupon Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 265-274, March.
    15. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    16. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    17. Davis, E P, 1992. "Credit Quality Spreads, Bond Market Efficiency and Financial Fragility," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 60(0), pages 21-46, Supplemen.
    18. Sarig, Oded & Warga, Arthur, 1989. " Some Empirical Estimates of the Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1351-1360, December.
    19. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    20. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "The Determinants of Investment: Another Look," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(2), pages 71-75, May.
    21. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    22. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    23. Yash P. Mehra, 1994. "An error-correction model of the long-term bond rate," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 49-68.
    24. Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-126, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carol Alexandra & Jacques Pezier, 2003. "On the Aggregation of Market and Credit Risks," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2003-13, Henley Business School, Reading University.
    2. repec:wsi:rpbfmp:v:08:y:2005:i:04:n:s0219091505000567 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Alicia Garcia Herrero & Alvaro Ortiz, 2004. "The Role Of Global Risk Aversion In Explaining Latin American Sovereign Spreads," International Finance 0408001, EconWPA.
    4. Hongming Huang & Yildiray Yildirim, 2008. "Leverage, options liabilities, and corporate bond pricing," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 245-276, October.
    5. Alejandro Reveiz Herault, 2008. "The Factor-Portfolios Approach to Asset Management using Genetic Algorithms," Borradores de Economia 511, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Horst Rottmann & Franz Seitz, 2004. "Credit Spreads und ihre Determinanten in Deutschland," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(24), pages 10-14, December.
    7. Davies, Andrew, 2008. "Credit spread determinants: An 85 year perspective," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 180-197, May.
    8. Alejandro Revéiz Hérault, "undated". "Factores determinantes de los márgenes entre bonos del gobierno y bonos corporativos en los Estados Unidos," Lecturas en Finanzas 002710, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Dötz, Niko, 2014. "Decomposition of country-specific corporate bond spreads," Discussion Papers 37/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Junji Shimada & Toyoharu Takahashi & Tatsuyoshi Miyakoshi & Yoshihiko Tsukuda, 2010. "Japanese Interest Rate Swap Pricing," TERG Discussion Papers 253, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    11. Manzoni, Katiuscia, 2002. "Modeling credit spreads: An application to the sterling Eurobond market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 183-218.
    12. Ambrose, Brent W. & Buttimer, Richard Jr., 2005. "GSE impact on rural mortgage markets," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 417-443, July.
    13. Ericsson, Jan & Reneby, Joel, 2003. "Valuing Corporate Liabilities," SIFR Research Report Series 15, Institute for Financial Research.
    14. Maalaoui Chun, Olfa & Dionne, Georges & François, Pascal, 2014. "Credit spread changes within switching regimes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 41-55.
    15. Thomas Siegl & Peter Quell, 2004. "Modelling Specific Interest Rate Risk with Estimation of Missing Data," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 283-309.
    16. Astrid Van Landschoot, 2004. "The Determinants of Credit Spreads," Financial Stability Review, National Bank of Belgium, vol. 2(1), pages 135-155, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit ; Interest rates;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:98-08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lu Dayrit). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/frbkcus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.