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Credit spread determinants: An 85 year perspective

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  • Davies, Andrew

Abstract

This paper estimates a set of credit spread forecasting models using an 85 year history for AAA and BAA corporate bond yield data for the US. Credit spreads are defined as the corporate bond yield less the 20 year yield on US government bonds and are explained by a set of intuitively appealing financial and economic variables. Initial results relate to the application of cointegration techniques to provide long and short run estimates of the key determinants of credit spreads. The analysis is then extended to allow for an unobservable latent variable Markov Switching specification across two separate states. Finally a deterministic regime model based upon an inflation threshold is estimated demonstrating that key causal relationships exist independently across different inflationary environments.

Suggested Citation

  • Davies, Andrew, 2008. "Credit spread determinants: An 85 year perspective," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 180-197, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:11:y:2008:i:2:p:180-197
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    1. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Azamat Abdymomunov & Kyu Ho Kang & Ki Jeong Kim, 2014. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields Using Credit Spreads and Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2014-19, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    2. Yinghui Dong & Xue Liang & Guojing Wang, 2012. "Unilateral Counterparty Risk Valuation for CDS Under a Regime Switching Interacting Intensities Model," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 19(4), pages 391-415, November.
    3. Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2013. "Default, Liquidity, and Crises: an Econometric Framework," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 11(2), pages 221-262, March.
    4. Mansanet-Bataller, Maria & Chevallier, Julien & Hervé-Mignucci, Morgan & Alberola, Emilie, 2011. "EUA and sCER phase II price drivers: Unveiling the reasons for the existence of the EUA-sCER spread," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1056-1069, March.
    5. Chi-Fai Lo & Cho-Hoi Hui, 2016. "Pricing corporate bonds with interest rates following double square-root process," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(03), pages 1-31, September.
    6. Maria Mansanet-Bataller & Julien Chevallier & Morgan Hervé-Mignucci & Emilie Alberola, 2010. "The EUA-sCER Spread: Compliance Strategies and Arbitrage in the European Carbon Market," Post-Print halshs-00458991, HAL.
    7. Contessi, Silvio & De Pace, Pierangelo & Guidolin, Massimo, 2014. "How did the financial crisis alter the correlations of U.S. yield spreads?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 362-385.
    8. Kalimipalli, Madhu & Nayak, Subhankar & Perez, M. Fabricio, 2013. "Dynamic effects of idiosyncratic volatility and liquidity on corporate bond spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2969-2990.
    9. Abdymomunov, Azamat & Kang, Kyu Ho & Kim, Ki Jeong, 2016. "Can credit spreads help predict a yield curve?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 39-61.
    10. Batten, Jonathan A. & Jacoby, Gady & Liao, Rose C., 2014. "Corporate yield spreads and real interest rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 89-100.
    11. Anthony H. Tu & Cathy Yi-Hsuan Chen, 2016. "What Derives the Bond Portfolio Value-at-Risk: Information Roles of Macroeconomic and Financial Stress Factors," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-006, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    12. Chan, Kam Fong & Marsden, Alastair, 2014. "Macro risk factors of credit default swap indices in a regime-switching framework," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 285-308.
    13. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5109 is not listed on IDEAS

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