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The role of foreign and domestic factors in the evolution of the Brazilian EMBI spread and debt dynamics

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  • Andrea Fracasso

    () (Department of Economics, University of Trento)

Abstract

This paper examines the relative importance of global and domestic factors as a source of macroeconomic fluctuations in Brazil from 1995 to 2004. US and Brazilian credit spreads are encompassed in a near-VAR model, including the main debt-related domestic variables. The US corporate bond spread is used as a measure of international risk aversion. The relative importance of global factors to the volatility of Brazilian domestic series is singled out by means of a partial identification strategy, whereby foreign variables are treated as block exogenous. The estimates reveal that foreign investors’ appetite for risk is an important determinant of the volatility of the macroeconomic Brazilian series and affects the monetary policy transmission channel, as recently suggested by Olivier Blanchard.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Fracasso, 2006. "The role of foreign and domestic factors in the evolution of the Brazilian EMBI spread and debt dynamics," IHEID Working Papers 22-2007, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Jul 2007.
  • Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heiwp22-2007
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    File URL: http://repec.graduateinstitute.ch/pdfs/Working_papers/HEIWP22-2007.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    2. Hans Genberg, 2003. "Foreign versus domestic factors as sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in Hong Kong," IHEID Working Papers 05-2003, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    3. Alicia Garcia Herrero & Alvaro Ortiz, 2004. "The Role Of Global Risk Aversion In Explaining Latin American Sovereign Spreads," International Finance 0408001, EconWPA.
    4. Evan Tanner & Alberto Ramos, 2003. "Fiscal sustainability and monetary versus fiscal dominance: evidence from Brazil, 1991-2000," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(7), pages 859-873.
    5. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
    6. Marcio Garcia & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market's Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data," NBER Working Papers 10336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Fabio Canova, 2005. "The transmission of US shocks to Latin America," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 229-251.
    8. Genberg, Hans & Salemi, Michael K. & Swoboda, Alexander, 1987. "The relative importance of foreign and domestic disturbances for aggregate fluctuations in the open economy : Switzerland, 1964-1981," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 45-67, January.
    9. Sy, Amadou N. R., 2002. "Emerging market bond spreads and sovereign credit ratings: reconciling market views with economic fundamentals," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 380-408, December.
    10. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo, 1996. "The new wave of private capital inflows: Push or pull?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 389-418, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Banerji, Sanjay & Ventouri, Alexia & Wang, Zilong, 2014. "The sovereign spread in Asian emerging economies: The significance of external versus internal factors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 566-576.
    2. Lorena Mari del Cristo & Marta Gómez-Puig, 2014. "Dollarization and the relationship between EMBI and fundamentals in Latin American countries," Working Papers 2014-02, Universitat de Barcelona, UB Riskcenter.
    3. María Lorena Mari del Cristo & Marta Gómez-Puig, 2014. "“Dollarization and the Relationship Between EMBI and Fundamentals Latin American Countries”," IREA Working Papers 201406, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Mar 2014.
    4. repec:eee:finlet:v:24:y:2018:i:c:p:34-41 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Carcel, Hector & Gil-Alana, Luis, 2018. "The EMBI in Latin America: Fractional integration, non-linearities and breaks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 34-41.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    External factors; Credit spreads; External debt; Fiscal dominance.;

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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