IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Transmission des chocs et mécanismes d'ajustement dans le Mercosur

  • Jean-Pierre Allegret
  • Alain Sand-Zantman

This paper studies the feasibility of a monetary union in Mercosur. A semi-structural VAR model is estimated for each country, including a set of international and domestic variables. The structural innovations generated by each country model are broken down into unobservable common and idiosyncratic components, using an unobservable components model. This paper exhibits significant evidences inconsistent with a monetary integration. The experiments with the VAR models do not show any convergence of economic policies of the Member States. The unobservable components model confirms as the asymmetry of exogenous shocks than the low level of policy synchronicity. Finally, the idiosyncratic responses to the external financial shocks suggest that the differences of exchange rate regimes do not ease convergence and coordination. JEL codes: C32, E32, F42.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.cairn.info/load_pdf.php?ID_ARTICLE=REOF_101_0355
Download Restriction: free

File URL: http://www.cairn.info/revue-de-l-ofce-2007-2-page-355.htm
Download Restriction: free

Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): 101 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 355-392

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_101_0355
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-de-l-ofce.htm

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Harvey,Andrew C., 1991. "Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521405737, 1.
  2. Paul Hallwood & Ian W. Marsh & Joerg Scheibe, 2004. "An Assessment of the Case for Monetary Union or Official Dollarization in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Uruguay and Venezuela," Working papers 2004-13, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  3. Perron, P., 1990. "Further Evidence On Breaking Trend Functions In Macroeconomics Variables," Papers 350, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  4. Nick Chamie & Alain DeSerres & Rene Lalonde, 1994. "Optimum Currency Areas and Shock Asymmetry A Comparison of Europe and the United States," International Finance 9406001, EconWPA, revised 23 Jun 1994.
  5. Martin Uribe & Vivian Z. Yue, 2004. "Country spreads and emerging countries: who drives whom?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  6. Canova, Fabio, 2003. "The Transmission of US Shocks to Latin America," CEPR Discussion Papers 3963, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Norman Loayza & J. Humberto Lopez & Angel J. Ubide, 1999. "Sectorial Macroeconomic Interdependencies: Evidence for Latin America, East Asia and Europe," IMF Working Papers 99/11, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Martin Gonzalez-Rozada & Jose Maria Fanelli, 2004. "Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policy Coordination in Mercosur," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 328, Econometric Society.
  9. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & DEC, 1994. "The new wave of private capital inflows : push or pull?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1312, The World Bank.
  10. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
  11. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Jon Faust & Eric M. Leeper, 1994. "When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results?," International Finance Discussion Papers 462, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Rand, John & Tarp, Finn, 2001. "Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?," MPRA Paper 62445, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Favero, Carlo A., 2001. "Applied Macroeconometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296850, July.
  16. Ahmed, Shaghil, 2003. "Sources of economic fluctuations in Latin America and implications for choice of exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 181-202, October.
  17. Edwards, Sebastian, 1984. "LDC Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation, 1976-80," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(4), pages 726-34, September.
  18. Matthieu Lemoine & Florian Pelgrin, 2003. "Introduction aux modèles espace-état et au filtre de Kalman," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 86(3), pages 203-229.
  19. Sebastian Edwards, 1983. "LDC's Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 1172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Lafrance, Robert & St-Amant, Pierre, 2000. "Les zones monétaires optimales," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 76(4), pages 577-612, décembre.
  21. Andrew Berg & Paolo Mauro & Eduardo Borensztein, 2002. "An Evaluation of Monetary Regime Options for Latin America," IMF Working Papers 02/211, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Bastourre, Diego & Carrera, Jorge & Féliz, Mariano & Panigo, Demian, 2003. "Dollarization and real volatility," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 0311, CEPREMAP.
  23. Eduardo Levy & Federico Sturzenegger, 2000. "Is EMU a Blueprint for Mercosur?," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 37(110), pages 63-99.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_101_0355. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jean-Baptiste de Vathaire)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.