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Disentangling business cycles and macroeconomic policy in Mercosur: a VAR and unobserved components model approaches

Listed author(s):
  • Jean-Pierre Allegret

    ()

    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines)

  • Alain Sand-Zantman

    ()

    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines)

Monetary integration in Mercosur processed in a context of strong macroeconomic volatility. This paper analyzes the feasibility of a monetary union within this zone. Instead of taking in account all the criteria of the optimal currencies areas, this study focuses on the macroeconomic cycles in Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay. First, we analyse cross-correlation to identify the degree of cycle synchronization. Second, a structural VAR model is built for each country. It allows us to determine the sources of shocks which hit these countries. Third, we decompose structural innovations -especially economic policies shocks- of domestic SVAR into unobservable common and idiosyncratic components using a state-space model. We assess in what extent economic policies are coordinated between the Mercosur countries.

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File URL: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00134317/document
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Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00134317.

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Date of creation: Sep 2006
Publication status: Published in Document de travail OFCE 2006-15. 2006
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00134317
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00134317
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  2. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, September.
  3. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
  4. Nick Chamie (Bank of Canada), & Alain DeSerres (Bank of Canada), & Rene Lalonde (Bank of Canada), "undated". "Optimum Currency Areas and Shock Asymmetry: A Comparison of Europe and the United States," Staff Working Papers 94-1, Bank of Canada.
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  9. Ahmed, Shaghil, 2003. "Sources of economic fluctuations in Latin America and implications for choice of exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 181-202, October.
  10. Barry Eichengreen., 1998. "Does Mercosur Need a Single Currency?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C98-103, University of California at Berkeley.
  11. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "Monetary Unions, External Shocks and Economic Performance," Working Papers 126, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
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  14. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Addicted to Dollars," NBER Working Papers 10015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  15. Robert Rennhack & Masahiro Nozaki, 2006. "Financial Dollarization in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 06/7, .
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  17. Paul Hallwood & Ian W. Marsh & Joerg Scheibe, 2004. "An Assessment of the Case for Monetary Union or Official Dollarization in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Uruguay and Venezuela," Working papers 2004-13, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  18. Nick Chamie & Alain DeSerres & Rene Lalonde, 1994. "Optimum Currency Areas and Shock Asymmetry A Comparison of Europe and the United States," International Finance 9406001, EconWPA, revised 23 Jun 1994.
  19. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009.
  20. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Hochreiter, Eduard & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Winckler, Georg, 2002. "Monetary union: European lessons, Latin American prospects," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 297-321, December.
  22. Scott, Alasdair, 2003. "APPLIED MACROECONOMETRICS Carlo A. Favero Oxford University Press, 2001," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 313-315, April.
  23. Martín Gonzalez Rozada & José Fanelli, 2003. "Business Cycle and Macroeconomic Policy Coordination in MERCOSUR," Business School Working Papers uno, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
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