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Business Cycle and Macroeconomic Policy Coordination in MERCOSUR

The paper analyzes cyclical comovements in the Mercosur area differentiating idiosyncratic from common shocks. In the Mercosur (or any region for that matter) shocks can be country-specific, affecting only one country or a specific set of countries (for example, a weather-related shock, a domestic policy shock); or they can be common to the entire region (for example, a change in the conditions in international capital markets or a world recession). Propagation mechanisms, in turn, are important because a shock that was initially country-specific, originating in one country, might eventually spillover to others. We build on the unobserved component approach to decompose the Mercosur countries real GDP (seasonally adjusted) fluctuations into these three components and compare them with previous results. The main findings in the paper are: first, common factors originating in impulses stemming from changes in investor’s sentiment are relevant to explaining regional output comovements and the spillover effects between neighbors are significant. Second, volatility matters, and matters especially in the case of recent regional agreements. Supply shocks in Mercosur countries tend to be larger than in the US and European countries. Third, finance matters for both volatility and output/price dynamics. Accelerator effects may be important in explaining some features of the output/price dynamics that the standard models based on vector autoregression techniques are unable to account for..

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File URL: http://www.utdt.edu/departamentos/empresarial/cif/pdfs-wp/wpcif-162003.pdf
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Paper provided by Universidad Torcuato Di Tella in its series Business School Working Papers with number uno.

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Length: 53 pages
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:udt:wpbsdt:uno
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Web page: http://www.utdt.edu/listado_contenidos.php?id_item_menu=4994

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  1. Wouter J. Den Haan & Steven Sumner, 2001. "The Comovements between Real Activity and Prices in the G7," NBER Working Papers 8195, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Eichengreen, Barry, 1998. "Does Mercosur Need a Single Currency?," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt6fw631qn, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  3. Tamim Bayoumi & Paolo Mauro, 2001. "The Suitability of ASEAN for a Regional Currency Arrangement," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(7), pages 933-954, 07.
  4. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," Economics Working Papers 92-187, University of California at Berkeley.
  5. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Westermann, Frank, 2000. "Does Austria Respond to the German or the US Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 33-42, February.
  6. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Susanto Basu & Alan M. Taylor, 1999. "Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
  9. den Haan, Wouter J., 2000. "The comovement between output and prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 3-30, August.
  10. Watson, Mark W. & Engle, Robert F., 1983. "Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 385-400, December.
  11. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  14. Barry Eichengreen & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "The Monetary Consequences of a Free Trade Area of the Americas," NBER Working Papers 9666, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of Monetary Unification," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt791143kp, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  16. Jose Maria Fanelli & Ricardo N. Bebczuk & Juan J. Pradelli, 2002. "Determinants and Consequences of Financial Constraints Facing Firms in Argentina," Research Department Publications 3147, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  17. repec:rus:hseeco:123940 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. den Haan, Wouter J. & SUMNER, STEVEN W, 2001. "The Comovements Between Real Activity and Prices," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt8c23205t, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  19. repec:rus:hseeco:122521 is not listed on IDEAS
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