IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/diw/diwwpp/dp1524.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The EMBI in Latin America: Fractional Integration, Non-linearities and Breaks

Author

Listed:
  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Hector Carcel
  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

Abstract

This paper analyses the main statistical properties of the Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI), namely long-range dependence or persistence, non-linearities, and structural breaks, in four Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela). For this purpose it uses a fractional integration framework and both parametric and semiparametric methods. The evidence based on the former is sensitive to the specification for the error terms, whilst the results from the latter are more conclusive in ruling out mean reversion. Further, non-linearities do not appear to be present. Both recursive and rolling window methods identify a number of breaks. Overall, the evidence of long-range dependence as well as breaks suggests that active policies might be necessary for achieving financial and economic stability in these countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Hector Carcel & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2015. "The EMBI in Latin America: Fractional Integration, Non-linearities and Breaks," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1524, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1524
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.520779.de/dp1524.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
    2. Hernando Vargas & Andrés Gonzalez & Ignacio Lozano, 2012. "Macroeconomic effects of structural fiscal policy changes in Colombia," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Fiscal policy, public debt and monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 67, pages 119-160, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. María Lorena Mari del Cristo & Marta Gómez-Puig, 2017. "Dollarization and the relationship between EMBI and fundamentals in Latin American Countries," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 40(112), pages 14-30, Enero.
    4. Andrea Fracasso, 2006. "The role of foreign and domestic factors in the evolution of the Brazilian EMBI spread and debt dynamics," IHEID Working Papers 22-2007, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Jul 2007.
    5. Eduardo A. Cavallo & Patricio Valenzuela, 2010. "The determinants of corporate risk in emerging markets: an option-adjusted spread analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 59-74.
    6. Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Testing the unit root with drift hypothesis against nonlinear trend stationarity, with an application to the US price level and interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 29-64, November.
    7. Luis A. Gil‐Alana, 2008. "Fractional integration and structural breaks at unknown periods of time," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 163-185, January.
    8. Abadir, Karim M. & Distaso, Walter & Giraitis, Liudas, 2007. "Nonstationarity-extended local Whittle estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1353-1384, December.
    9. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Juan C. Cuestas, 2012. "A non-linear approach with long range dependence based on Chebyshev polynomials," NCID Working Papers 11/2012, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    10. Miguel A. Segoviano & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads: Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 2010/120, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Valentín Délano & Jorge Selaive, 2005. "Spreads Soberanos: Una Aproximación Factorial," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 309, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Borensztein, Eduardo & Cowan, Kevin & Valenzuela, Patricio, 2013. "Sovereign ceilings “lite”? The impact of sovereign ratings on corporate ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4014-4024.
    13. Francisco López Herrera & Francisco Venegas Martínez & César Gurrola Ríos, 2013. "EMBI+México y su relación dinámica con otros factores de riesgo sistemático: 1997-2011," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 28(2), pages 193-216.
    14. Julio Nogués & Martín Grandes, 2001. "COUNTRY RISK: Economic Policy, Contagion Effect or Political noise?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 4, pages 125-162, May.
    15. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    16. Fátima Irina VILLALBA PADILLA & Miguel FLORES-ORTEGA, 2013. "Forecasting the variance and return of Mexican financial series with symmetric GARCH models," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(580)), pages 61-82, March.
    17. repec:agr:journl:v:3(580):y:2013:i:3(580):p:61-82 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Nicolay, Rodolfo & Pereira, Flavio, 2022. "Does fiscal sentiment matter for sovereign risk?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 18-30.
    2. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & María Malmierca, 2022. "Credit-to-GDP ratios – non-linear trends and persistence: evidence from 44 OECD economies," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 50(3), pages 448-463, March.
    3. Francisco López-Herrera & Domingo Rodríguez Benavides & César Gurrola Ríos, 2019. "Spillovers entre el S&Poor500 y los principales EMBIG latinoamericanos," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 14(PNEA), pages 527-540, Agosto 20.
    4. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Khediri, Karim Ben & Aye, Goodness C. & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Time-varying efficiency of developed and emerging bond markets: Evidence from long-spans of historical data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 505(C), pages 632-647.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. María Lorena Mari del Cristo & Marta Gómez-Puig, 2017. "Dollarization and the relationship between EMBI and fundamentals in Latin American Countries," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 40(112), pages 14-30, Enero.
    2. Monge, Manuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Pérez de Gracia, Fernando, 2017. "Crude oil price behaviour before and after military conflicts and geopolitical events," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 79-91.
    3. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2016. "Persistence, mean reversion and non-linearities in the US housing prices over 1830--2013," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(34), pages 3244-3252, July.
    4. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & You, Kefei, 2018. "Exchange rate linkages between the ASEAN currencies, the US dollar and the Chinese RMB," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 227-238.
    6. Giorgio Canarella & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2020. "Modeling US historical time-series prices and inflation using alternative long-memory approaches," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1491-1511, April.
    7. Aye, Goodness C. & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "The efficiency of the art market: Evidence from variance ratio tests, linear and nonlinear fractional integration approaches," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 283-294.
    8. Carlos Barros & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2014. "Long Memory in Angolan Macroeconomic Series: Mean Reversion versus Explosive Behaviour," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 26(1), pages 59-73.
    9. Carlos Pestana Barros & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2012. "Long Memory in German Energy Price Indices," CESifo Working Paper Series 3935, CESifo.
    10. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil‐Alana & Tommaso Trani, 2022. "On the persistence of UK inflation: A long‐range dependence approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 439-454, January.
    11. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Juncal Cuñado & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2013. "Modelling long-run trends and cycles in financial time series data," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 405-421, May.
    12. Garay, Urbi & González, Maximiliano & Rosso, John, 2019. "Country and industry effects in corporate bond spreads in emerging markets," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 191-200.
    13. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Aysit Tansel, 2019. "Long Memory in Turkish Unemployment Rates," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(1), pages 201-217, January.
    14. Luis Alberiko & OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Olarenwaju I. Shittu, 2015. "Fractional integration and asymmetric volatility in european, asian and american bull and bear markets. Applications to high frequency stock data," NCID Working Papers 07/2015, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    15. Guglielmo Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2013. "Long memory in US real output per capita," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 591-611, April.
    16. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Manuel Monge, 2019. "Energy Consumption in the GCC Countries: Evidence on Persistence," CESifo Working Paper Series 7470, CESifo.
    17. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2023. "Long-Run Trends and Cycles in US House Prices," CESifo Working Paper Series 10751, CESifo.
    18. Adebola, Solarin Sakiru & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Madigu, Godfrey, 2019. "Gold prices and the cryptocurrencies: Evidence of convergence and cointegration," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 1227-1236.
    19. OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Acheampong Y. Amoateng, 2019. "Under-5 Mortality Rates in G7 Countries: Analysis of Fractional Persistence, Structural Breaks and Nonlinear Time Trends," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 35(4), pages 675-694, October.
    20. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan, 2014. "Persistence and cycles in historical oil price data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 511-516.
    21. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Poza, Carlos, 2020. "High and low prices and the range in the European stock markets: A long-memory approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging markets; EMBI; fractional integration; non-linearities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1524. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/diwbede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.