IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/imfstp/v50y2003i3p3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The High-Yield Spread as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity: Evidence of a Financial Accelerator for the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Ashoka Mody

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Mark P. Taylor

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

Previous studies find that the interest rate term spread predicts real U.S. economic activity. We show that this relationship breaks down for the 1990s and suggest that its earlier success was due to high and volatile inflation. We find, however, that the high-yield spread (HYS) between "junk bond" and government bond yields predicts real activity during the 1990s--especially high levels of the HYS. We also find that the HYS works through both the demand and the supply side of the economy. We interpret our findings as supportive of a financial accelerator mechanism. Copyright 2003, International Monetary Fund

Suggested Citation

  • Ashoka Mody & Mark P. Taylor, 2003. "The High-Yield Spread as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity: Evidence of a Financial Accelerator for the United States," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(3), pages 1-3.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:50:y:2003:i:3:p:3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/External/Pubs/FT/staffp/2003/03/pdf/mody.pdf
    File Function: main text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:50:y:2003:i:3:p:3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.