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Crise de change et politique monétaire optimale dans un modèle de troisième génération : le rôle de la prime de risque

  • Vincent Bouvatier

    ()

    (TEAM)

This article relates to the choice of the optimal monetary policy during a currency crisis. Aghion, Bacchetta and Banerjee (1999, 2000, 2001) show that a restrictive monetary policy is optimal if economy is strongly in debt in foreign currency and if the effect of credit channel is weak. However, this result is obtained with an assumption of perfect substituability of assets - the risk premium is equal to zero. The introduction of a risk premium in the theoretical model can be justified with an econometric approach for Thailand and to a lesser extent for South Korea. The efficiency of the monetary policy during a currency crisis is reduced when the risk premium plays an important part in the determination of the interest rate differential. Under these conditions, capital controls could be a more adequate policy to manage a currency crisis.

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File URL: ftp://mse.univ-paris1.fr/pub/mse/cahiers2004/Bla04089.pdf
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Paper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1) in its series Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques with number bla04089.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mse:wpsorb:bla04089
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  1. Piketty, Thomas & Banerjee, Abhijit & Aghion, Philippe, 1997. "Dualism and macroeconomic volatility," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9720, CEPREMAP.
  2. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Abhijit Banerjee, 2001. "A Corporate Balance-Sheet Approach to Currency Crises," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 01.14, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  4. Paul Fenton & Alain Paquet, 1997. "International Interest Rate Differentials: The Interaction with Fiscal and Monetary Variables, and the Business Cycle," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 56, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal, revised Jan 1998.
  5. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
  6. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating, and Original Sin," Working Papers 112003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  7. Leonardo Hernández & Peter J. Montiel, 2002. "Post-crisis exchange rate policy in five Asian countries: filling in the "hollow middle"?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2002-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  8. Banerjee, Abhijit & Bacchetta, Philippe & Aghion, Philippe, 2001. "Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints," Scholarly Articles 4554218, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  9. Michael P. Dooley, 1997. "A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility," NBER Working Papers 7418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Diamond, Douglas W, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414, July.
  12. Hali J. Edison & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1999. "Capital controls during financial crises: the cases of Malaysia and Thailand," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
  13. Paul Fenton & Alain Paquet, 1997. "Politiques économiques et intégration des marchés financiers: que pouvons-nous apprendre des différentiels de taux d'intérêt?," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 52, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  14. Philippe Bacchetta, 2000. "Monetary Policy with Foreign Currency Debt," Working Papers 00.03, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  15. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "How Effective are Capital Controls?," NBER Working Papers 7413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
  17. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
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