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Crise de change et politique monétaire optimale dans un modèle de troisième génération : le rôle de la prime de risque


  • Vincent Bouvatier

    () (TEAM)


This article relates to the choice of the optimal monetary policy during a currency crisis. Aghion, Bacchetta and Banerjee (1999, 2000, 2001) show that a restrictive monetary policy is optimal if economy is strongly in debt in foreign currency and if the effect of credit channel is weak. However, this result is obtained with an assumption of perfect substituability of assets - the risk premium is equal to zero. The introduction of a risk premium in the theoretical model can be justified with an econometric approach for Thailand and to a lesser extent for South Korea. The efficiency of the monetary policy during a currency crisis is reduced when the risk premium plays an important part in the determination of the interest rate differential. Under these conditions, capital controls could be a more adequate policy to manage a currency crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent Bouvatier, 2004. "Crise de change et politique monétaire optimale dans un modèle de troisième génération : le rôle de la prime de risque," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla04089, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  • Handle: RePEc:mse:wpsorb:bla04089

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Hernandez, Leonardo & Montiel, Peter J., 2003. "Post-crisis exchange rate policy in five Asian countries: Filling in the "hollow middle"?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 336-369, September.
    2. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "A corporate balance-sheet approach to currency crises," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 6-30, November.
    3. Philippe Aghion & Abhijit Banerjee & Thomas Piketty, 1999. "Dualism and Macroeconomic Volatility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1359-1397.
    4. Paul Fenton & Alain Paquet, 1997. "International Interest Rate Differentials: The Interaction with Fiscal and Monetary Variables, and the Business Cycle," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 56, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal, revised Jan 1998.
    5. Dooley, Michael P, 2000. "A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 256-272, January.
    6. Edison, Hali J. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1999. "Capital controls during financial crises: the cases of Malaysia and Thailand," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep, pages 1-36.
    7. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating, and Original Sin," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 331-360, August.
    8. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    9. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "Currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1121-1150.
    10. Douglas W. Diamond, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414.
    11. Philippe Bacchetta, 2000. "Monetary Policy with Foreign Currency Debt," Working Papers 00.03, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    12. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "How Effective Are Capital Controls?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 65-84, Fall.
    13. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    14. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
    15. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
    17. Paul Fenton & Alain Paquet, 1997. "Politiques économiques et intégration des marchés financiers: que pouvons-nous apprendre des différentiels de taux d'intérêt?," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 52, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
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    Cited by:

    1. U. Michael Bergman & Shakill Hassan, 2008. "Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints: The No Interest Parity Case," EPRU Working Paper Series 08-01, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.

    More about this item


    Monetary policy; currency crisis; risk premium.;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange


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