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Anthropogenic and natural causes of climate change

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  • David Stern

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  • Robert Kaufmann

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Abstract

We test for causality between radiative forcing and temperature using multivariate time series models and Granger causality tests that are robust to the non-stationary (trending) nature of global climate data. We find that both natural and anthropogenic forcings cause temperature change and also that temperature causes greenhouse gas concentration changes. Although the effects of greenhouse gases and volcanic forcing are robust across model specifications, we cannot detect any effect of black carbon on temperature, the effect of changes in solar irradiance is weak, and the effect of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols may be only around half that usually attributed to them. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • David Stern & Robert Kaufmann, 2014. "Anthropogenic and natural causes of climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 257-269, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:122:y:2014:i:1:p:257-269 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1007-x
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-013-1007-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jacobs, Rodney L & Leamer, Edward E & Ward, Michael P, 1979. "Difficulties with Testing for Causation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 17(3), pages 401-413, July.
    2. Toda, Hiro Y. & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1993. "The spurious effect of unit roots on vector autoregressions : An analytical study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 229-255, October.
    3. Umberto Triacca & Alessandro Attanasio & Antonello Pasini, 2013. "Anthropogenic global warming hypothesis: testing its robustness by Granger causality analysis," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 260-268, June.
    4. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    5. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1982. "Non-causality due to omitted variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2-3), pages 367-378, August.
    6. Joachim Wilde, 2012. "Effects of simultaneity on testing Granger-causality – a cautionary note about statistical problems and economic misinterpretations," Working Papers 93, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. My Year in Review 2014
      by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend on 2014-12-30 06:58:00
    2. Economic Growth and Global Particulate Pollution Concentrations
      by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend on 2016-03-11 16:56:00
    3. More Mathiness in Climate Econometrics: Doug Keenan's Climate Change Contest
      by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend on 2016-05-13 06:54:00
    4. A Multicointegration Model of Global Climate Change
      by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend on 2018-02-10 07:11:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Guillaume Chevillon, 2017. "Robust cointegration testing in the presence of weak trends, with an application to the human origin of global warming," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 514-545.
    2. repec:oxf:wpaper:750 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Dergiades, Theologos & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2016. "Long-run changes in radiative forcing and surface temperature: The effect of human activity over the last five centuries," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 67-85.
    4. Beenstock, Michael & Reingewertz, Yaniv & Paldor, Nathan, 2016. "Testing the historic tracking of climate models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1234-1246.
    5. repec:hal:journl:hal-00914830 is not listed on IDEAS

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