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Anthropogenic and natural causes of climate change

Listed author(s):
  • David Stern

    ()

  • Robert Kaufmann

    ()

We test for causality between radiative forcing and temperature using multivariate time series models and Granger causality tests that are robust to the non-stationary (trending) nature of global climate data. We find that both natural and anthropogenic forcings cause temperature change and also that temperature causes greenhouse gas concentration changes. Although the effects of greenhouse gases and volcanic forcing are robust across model specifications, we cannot detect any effect of black carbon on temperature, the effect of changes in solar irradiance is weak, and the effect of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols may be only around half that usually attributed to them. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-013-1007-x
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Climatic Change.

Volume (Year): 122 (2014)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 257-269

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Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:122:y:2014:i:1:p:257-269
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1007-x
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springer.com

Order Information: Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/10584

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  1. Jacobs, Rodney L & Leamer, Edward E & Ward, Michael P, 1979. "Difficulties with Testing for Causation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 17(3), pages 401-413, July.
  2. Toda, Hiro Y. & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1993. "The spurious effect of unit roots on vector autoregressions : An analytical study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 229-255, October.
  3. Umberto Triacca & Alessandro Attanasio & Antonello Pasini, 2013. "Anthropogenic global warming hypothesis: testing its robustness by Granger causality analysis," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 260-268, June.
  4. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
  5. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1982. "Non-causality due to omitted variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2-3), pages 367-378, August.
  6. Joachim Wilde, 2012. "Effects of simultaneity on testing Granger-causality – a cautionary note about statistical problems and economic misinterpretations," Working Papers 93, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University.
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