IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Tests for causality between integrated variables using asymptotic and bootstrap distributions: theory and application

  • R. Scott Hacker
  • Abdulnasser Hatemi-J

Causality tests in the Granger's sense are increasingly applied in empirical research. Since the unit root revolution in time-series analysis, several modifications of tests for causality have been introduced in the literature. One of the recent developments is the Toda-Yamamoto modified Wald (MWALD) test, which is attractive due to its simple application, its absence of pre-testing distortions, and its basis on a standard asymptotical distribution irrespective of the number of unit roots and the cointegrating properties of the data. This study investigates the size properties of the MWALD test and finds that in small sample sizes this test performs poorly on those properties when using its asymptotical distribution, the chi-square. It is suggested that use be made of a leveraged bootstrap distribution to lower the size distortions. Monte Carlo simulation results show that an MWALD test based on a bootstrap distribution has much smaller size distortions than corresponding cases when the asymptotic distribution is used. These results hold for different sample sizes, integration orders, and error term processes (homoscedastic or ARCH). This new method is applied to the testing of the efficient market hypothesis.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840500405763
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 38 (2006)
Issue (Month): 13 ()
Pages: 1489-1500

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:38:y:2006:i:13:p:1489-1500
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20

Order Information: Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEC20

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Manuchehr Irandoust, 2006. "A bootstrap-corrected causality test: another look at the money–income relationship," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 207-216, March.
  2. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
  3. Ralf Ostermark & Jaana Aaltonen, 1999. "Comparison of univariate and multivariate Granger causality in international asset pricing. Evidence from Finnish and Japanese financial economies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 155-165.
  4. Jurgen A Doornik & Henrik Hansen, . "An omnibus test for univariate and multivariate normalit," Economics Papers W4&91., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  5. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Eduardo Roca, 2004. "An examination of the equity market price linkage between Australia and the European Union using leveraged bootstrap method," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 475-488.
  6. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  7. Hsiu-Yun Lee & Kenneth Lin & Jyh-Lin Wu, 2002. "Pitfalls in using Granger causality tests to find an engine of growth," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 411-414.
  8. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2004. "Is the Equity Market Informationally Efficient in Japan? Evidence from Leveraged Bootstrap Analysis," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 57(4), pages 461-473.
  9. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
  10. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  11. R. Scott Hacker & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2005. "A test for multivariate ARCH effects," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(7), pages 411-417.
  12. Yamada, Hiroshi & Toda, Hiro Y., 1998. "Inference in possibly integrated vector autoregressive models: some finite sample evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 55-95, June.
  13. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2004. "Multivariate tests for autocorrelation in the stable and unstable VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 661-683, July.
  14. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
  15. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
  16. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Eduardo Roca, 2005. "Exchange rates and stock prices interaction during good and bad times: evidence from the ASEAN4 countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 539-546.
  17. Alain Hecq, 1996. "IGARCH effect on autoregressive lag length selection and causality tests," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(5), pages 317-323.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:

  1. 格蘭傑因果關係 in Wikipedia Chinese ne '')
  2. Granger Nedenselliği in Wikipedia Turkish ne '')
  3. Granger causality in Wikipedia English ne '')

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:38:y:2006:i:13:p:1489-1500. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.